In contrast to what most candidates do in the closing days of a race, Barack Obama is expanding his list of targets, making an ad buy in Arizona as well as Georgia and North Dakota:
YOUNGSTOWN,
Ohio — In a bold move brimming with confidence, Democrat Barack Obama
broadened his advertising campaign on Friday into two once reliably
Republican states and further bedeviled rival John McCain by placing a
commercial in the Republican presidential nominee's home state of
Arizona.Obama's campaign, capitalizing on his vast financial
resources and a favorable political climate, announced that it was
going back up with advertising in Georgia and North Dakota, two GOP
states that it had teased with ads earlier in the general election
campaign but then abandoned.
big fan of this from standpoint of marginal electoral strategy. A slew
of recent polls in Arizona show the state close, by margins ranging
from 1 to 8 points. However, this is the time of year when "close"
means something very different from "functionally tied". A 3-to-5 point
lead in a state, which is the Arizona polls average out, is fairly
significant at this stage of the contest. That lead still belongs to
John McCain.And needless to say, it is hard to elucidate a scenario in which Arizona serves as some sort of tipping point state.
Obama will not perform better in Arizona than in New Mexico, Nevada, or
Colorado, neighboring states that have been polling anywhere from 5-20
points more strongly for him. Suppose somehow that Obama were to insult
the Pittsburgh Steelers or something and lose Pennsylvania; could
Arizona matter then? Not really. The Kerry states less Pennsylvania,
but plus Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Arizona total 267
electoral votes, three fewer than Obama needs for victory. Obama would
also have to win something like Montana for it to matter (while losing
Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina etc.). Our model
thinks that the odds of this happening are something like 800,000-to-1
against.Of course, this is probably not an ad buy framed around
marginal electoral strategy; it is one framed around marginal media
strategy. As Chris Cillizza
notes, the tightish polls in Arizona, which the campaign can draw
attention to with this maneuver, provide Obama with a good piece of
evidence to argue that the national race is not particularly close. An
ad buy in Arizona -- and I'd expect this to be a very small, largely
symbolic ad buy -- is David Plouffe's version of a Drudge Siren.
15 comments
I don't see a downside here. I don't really think Obama has a chance in AZ, and I doubt he thinks so either. But the man is flush with cash, it gives him yet another way to control the narrative, and it forces McCain to spend funds he doesn't have on a state that he shouldn't have to defend.
- drdannyu
October 31, 2008 at 1:49pm
1) a head feint--make McCain spend some of his resources where he should not have to spend them.
2) do you get the feeling these two just don't like each other?
- cspencef
October 31, 2008 at 1:51pm
The notion of McCain loading up his Depends over losing Arizona is worth the price of admission alone.
- WoodyBombay
October 31, 2008 at 2:16pm
drdannyu is right, Obama has a ton of cash, he has to spend it all somewhere. I also read that McCain is actually going to Arizona this weekend. I really don't see any downside to commercials. Now if he were going there, that would be silly, but he isn't.
- blackton
October 31, 2008 at 2:21pm
As an Arizonan, I can say that there is a real, real enthusiasm gap between Obama supporters (and there are many) and McCain supporters. I'm sure that bumper stickers aren't a huge bellwether, but it's easily 2 or 3 to 1 in favor of Obama. Also, the demographics of the state mean that while Obama may not win AZ in 2008, he'll have a very good shot at it in 2012.
McCain has to do robocalls in AZ in order to staunch support. Olbermann suggested last night that Obama might make a stop here between now and Tuesday (though I doubt it).
I don't think we can underestimate the possibility of apoplexia among the McCain camp if they're forced to defend their home turf. There are a lot of Latinos and former Californians in AZ, and it's going to be much closer here than many seem to think.
- kerouac9
October 31, 2008 at 2:31pm
As an Arizona Democrat, let me say, without the slightest hesitation, that Obama has not a prayer of carrying Arizona. One of my favorite every-two-year amusements is to see what Democrat (other than our beloved Governor) can carry the state. Oh, people said breathlessly, Jim Peterson will get elected to the Senate against Jon Kyl! Yeah, right. Lost by 10. Terry Goddard got elected AG, but primarily because the R's nominated Attila the Hun. BUT--I still like it as a "screw you" statement to McCain.
- drwohl
October 31, 2008 at 2:33pm
I personally think you are all missing the true intention. If you look at the last few races there was major controversy over Electoral and Popular votes. If Obama can still squeeze another 100k people out of AZ or any other red state he will increase his margin overall in the Popular vote which will quell all this BS about ACORN / Voter Fraud etc.
A major Popular landslide may actually keep his ass alive. A close call and his safety is questionable.
- TLaBorn
October 31, 2008 at 3:30pm
Word on the street is the race in battleground states is tightening fast, McCain within one or two points of Obama compared to several points down earlier this week. Are voters starting to balk at the idea of an Obama victory. A close friend of mine has said for months that "America isn't ready to have a black president" and hasn't changed his tune a note this week. He thinks polls favorable to Obama largely consist of soft support - people who would like to think better of themselves than admit that they aren't prepared to vote for a black man. I guess we'll see. Rick Davis sure sounded excited today about the repaid progress he's seen in Iowa and Virginia (he claims Obama's team see the same results in their micro-polling). Obama's inexplicably back in Des Moines today. Maybe Plouffe is worried. I sure hope my friend is wrong.
- tomeg
October 31, 2008 at 4:18pm
I guess the point of my previous comment is that the last minute ad buys by the Obama team are meant to distract from polls yet to be reported in the media, that suggest a sea change may be under way toward McCain.
- tomeg
October 31, 2008 at 4:20pm
One word you, Nate: MANDATE.
- stgla
October 31, 2008 at 4:57pm
> that suggest a sea change may be under way toward McCain.
A "sea change" is a pretty big thing, and I see little that makes me think so.
Yeah, the race may still tighten. ALL races tend to. I'm currently in NZ, and the challenger's lead over the incumbent Prime Minister is whittled away steadily. Some people do rethink their choices at the actual point comes closer, and some waver, and some lose the coourage of their convictions.
But that doesn't mean that having only a 7-point lead makes you lose that election!
- ingolfson
October 31, 2008 at 4:58pm
tomeg - Maybe so. More likely, Obama is just having a hard time getting rid of all that cash and ihas the luxury of using it to play some mind games with the McCain camp.
Whatever the reason, it's best to think like you do. Now's not the time for complacency.
- WayneJM
October 31, 2008 at 5:01pm
tmeg: SurveyUSA came out with a poll from IA today. Obama +15. Don't be fooled by McCain's spin, he HAS to say that he's keeping close, that he's still in the game--especially if he's dumping all of his money in ADS vs. GOTV. If he admits that he's not gaining ground, that will likely further depress turnout on the Republican side and drive up Obama's margins.
If you are an Obama supporter a sure fire way to work out your anxiety is to make calls or, if you are in (or within driving distance of a battleground state, knock on doors over the weekend.
- kj_593
October 31, 2008 at 5:31pm
The GOP really rubbed it in that Al Gore was unable to win Tn., his home state in 2000. Bush campaigned there hard early on & was determined to humiliate Gore by beating him in his own back yard. So now I find it delicious that the Dems are aiming to pay the GOP back by taking McCain's home state of Az. There will never be too much humiliation that we are able to inflict on the GOP SOB's.
- frilz1
October 31, 2008 at 6:30pm
Three words: too much money, gotta spend it all before Nov 4...
- dbhuff
October 31, 2008 at 9:00pm