THE PLANK OCTOBER 16, 2008
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Jacob S. Hacker is Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for Health, Economic, and Family Security at U.C. Berkeley. He is also a Fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington D.C. His most recent books are Health At Risk: America's Ailing Health System--And How to Heal It, and The Great Risk Shift: The New Economic Insecurity and the Decline of the American Dream.
To my eyes and ears, Obama destroyed McCain on substance as well as style last night. Obama had clear substantive answers to every question, he seemed calm and measured, and his closing statement was as devastating as McCain's was rambling. Sure, he took a few liberties with the facts--even his own campaign is saying that the average family will save $2,500 in total from his health plan, not $2,500 in premiums alone--but this was a confident debate performance in which Obama again and again reached out to independents with a call for a new kind of politics and drove home his advantage on economic policy.
McCain, on the other hand, really had a disastrous performance. Even if he hadn't looked as if he were undergoing some kind of strange, recurrent seizure, he threw out his points in staccato fire without pausing or linking them together. On substance, he didn't know the basics of Obama's health and tax plans after three debates, leaving himself open to looking ill-informed. McCain was very strong in the first debate, on his favored foreign-policy ground, but his performances have steadily degenerated since. This was his worst--and it's the final nail in an already tightly sealed coffin.
By the way, we political scientists generally subscribe to the "minimal effects" view of campaigns, in which both sides are savvy enough that their efforts cancel each other out. And this certainly seems like an election in which the fundamentals have swamped any campaign strategies either side has used. But I think it's time to recognize that Obama has done something more profound in this cycle than simply run a smart campaign; he is showing that the old Republican strategy on economic policy of calling for tax cuts and criticizing government, while thowing mud in every other area, has real limits when the other side directly confronts it with arguments for "investment" and more carefully targeted tax policies.
We can only hope that it really is the end of the Karl Rove era in American politics. It's certainly the end of John McCain's campaign.
--Jacob S. Hacker
20 comments
right on....;) this is among the best analysis I have seen of the debate so far...
I think the era of demonizing government and regulation the Repugs are so fond of (b/c they have nothing else to offer) is OVER... now that we are seeing the results of that simplistic idelogy and failed policies as it's happening right now, in real time.. the fact is that Republicans are INTELLECTUALLY LAZY.. (cut government spending ACROSS THE BOARD, etc.. Repugs always have these simplistic "solutions" to complex problems, it just doesn't occur to them that "cutting" spending has to be done in a way that you consider each item ON ITS OWN MERITS...)
this has not gotten a lot of coverage, but McCain waxing indignant on one of the debates a few weeks ago about the government funding a scentific instrument for a planetarium was simply laughable.. McCain vetoed a bill earlier this year (or was it last year?) that would have funded health insurance for children... I guess that was an "earmark" in the world according to McCain.. I wish Obama had called him on that during the debate in which McCain was blowing a gasket about "earmarks" every few minutes...
what a pathetic grumpy old man, I swear.....
(IN ADDITION TO ALL OF WHICH: Repugs should feel LUCKY the Iraq war is not being talked about
much these days because the casualties are down compared to what they were earlier this year.. but if American casualties in Iraq were mounting like they were earlier this year McCain would be even further down in the polls....)
- maya90
October 16, 2008 at 12:25pm
So, Senator McCain is 'against taxes', and Governor Palin thinks taxes are 'unpatriotic'. Someone might ask them sometime: who pays their salaries, and provides their Security detail, and who pays for the Courts, and... Alternatively, someone might ask for a freewheeling comment on what Judge Wendell Holmes probably meant when he said - 'with our taxes we buy civilisation'.
- hwhitton
October 16, 2008 at 12:30pm
"We can only hope that it really is the end of the Karl Rove era in American politics. It's certainly the end of John McCain's campaign."
Here's hoping . . .
- phatkarp
October 16, 2008 at 12:34pm
Has anyone commented on McCain's peculiar opening "medical update" at debates 1 & 3? First Ted Kennedy (I believe Kennedy was already out when McCain announced he was in) and last night's "our beloved Nancy Regan..." What was THAT about??
- rah253
October 16, 2008 at 12:50pm
Joe the Plumber:
1. I suppose if Joe the Plumber ever ends up in the hospital (with or without health insurance) we'll hear about it first from the McCain campaign.
2. Hatchet/scalpel: after the bulldozer demolishes the house Joe can come in with his pipe wrench and stop that annoying drip in the kitchen faucet.
- rah253
October 16, 2008 at 12:53pm
Obama will lose a half-dozen or so points off his polling numbers because he's black. Polling day shenanigans and registration/provisional vote challenges will cost him another couple points (over and above what similar shenanigans/challenges cost McCain); plenty of judges are gonna have to keep the polls open longer to accommodate all the voters, and challenges will cause plenty of late-comers to give up and go home. He'll pick up a point or two from the cell phone-only crowd, who may shock the world by actually showing up. He'd better hope he has hard support and that his GOTV people don't act like rookies, which is what many of them are.
So, unless he is consistently polling >8 points or so ahead in battleground states, it ain't over.
I have no data to support the above claims. They derive purely from my glass-half-empty worldview.
- williamyard
October 16, 2008 at 1:12pm
Want to know how over it is? I, in Atlanta, GA, just got a bizarre McCain-Palin robocall. First off, the speaker sounded like a dark and menacing frat boy scrounged off some random college campus. He then talked about warning me about Obama's "friendship" with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers" who bombed the pentagon and killed (tried to kill?) a judge, and how he and the Democrat Party will pass their leftist agenda. This was paid for by McCain's campaign, in Atlanta! Where Obama isn't running ads anymore, and neither is McCain. Is he trying to save Saxby's bacon or is he really worried about the state?
- Crock1701
October 16, 2008 at 1:28pm
williamyard, I understand your fears. Honestly, I do. I feel them too.
All I can say is that, as an enthusiastic Obama supporter who's taking election day off to GOTV, the Obama office I work at seems to know what it's doing. I think the ground game is going to be where this thing gets sewn up. I hope, for the sake of everyone, that our fears are misplaced.
- drdannyu
October 16, 2008 at 1:48pm
Dan, I'm actually hopeful about the ground game, especially after having read the "road trip" posts over at fivethirtyeight. Unless a whole mess of McCain folks start showing up pretty soon, Obama's got the upper hand for nagging the laggards, driving folks to the polls, watching their kids while they vote--all that good stuff.
I was a precinct captain for Clinton back in '92, and Election Day was a hell of a rush. Also a great way to meet my neighbors. My hat is off to anyone in any party who does that kind of work. Hope you have a blast!
- williamyard
October 16, 2008 at 2:21pm
As an adherent to many of the thoughts of famed philosopher Lawrence Peter Berra, I realize it "ain't over until it's over," but I would add that "it's getting late early" for McCain.
I have the same fears as williamyard, but no Bradley Effect is showing up right now (of course, it probably wouldn't) and the world has come quite a ways (I would hope) on the race topic, especially among the young and the larger segments of the middle class. I think Obama's registration surge has put McCain on the defensive from the get-go and I have theorized that the choice of Palin may have been a direct result of the McCain team's fears of how many new voters will be showing up on November 4.
Here's hoping.
- Lundell
October 16, 2008 at 3:30pm
Regarding McCain's appearance, which Jacob describes as being "as if he were undergoing some kind of strange, recurrent seizure." I'm not a doctor, and I certainly don't mean to be disrespectful. But these tics, particularly the constant lizard-like protrusions of the tongue, seem like a medical condition.
Tardic dyskinesia is a possible side effect of a number of anti-depressand or anti-Parkinson's drugs. Its symptoms include protrusion of the tongue, frequent rapid blinking, grimacing, chewing or smacking of the lips (as if one has dry mouth), and difficulty controlling movements of the hands or fingers. More information is here:
bipolar.about.com/.../tardivedyskines.htm
Are there any doctors that watched the debate that can weigh in? Am I correct in recalling that we have not seen the great majority of McCain's medical or mental health records?
- agentzero
October 16, 2008 at 3:31pm
Thank you, Jacob Hacker, for commenting on the same debate that I saw. The immediate press reaction was that, (a) this was McCain's best night, and (b) Obama was too cool, (c) McCain said "I'm not George Bush; What a line!"
When will the press recognize that *voters like Mr. Cool.* Polls consistently show that Obama is the unequivocal victor in these debates, and that his approach increases his favorability. In the focus groups, everyone says they hate the attacks, the great line about Bush seemed transparent, and that they like sober issue talk.
McCain is, as Chris Matthews said, a terrible actor. Meaning that, if he doesn't really believe what he's saying, his discomfort is palpable. Unfortunately for McCain, that domain includes just about every issue raised at last night's debate, from the economy to health care to education to tax cuts to abortion. McCain's comofort zone, to the extent he has one, is foreign policy -- well, more specifically Iraq, and more specifically still, the surge. I'm not sure I've seen him talk about much of anything else with ease. I think that's because he doesn't know a lot about most other topics and issues and doesn't really care about them either in any but a detached and abstract sort of way.
Nobody mentioned that McCain didn't seem to know about Obama's health care plan. Nobody mentioned (that I saw) Obama's outstanding close, which had the audience starting to clap prematurely.
So, thanks!
- jhildner
October 16, 2008 at 3:36pm
Yep, it's ova. We can skip the election and just anoint him president fo' life.
- jwl2672
October 16, 2008 at 3:51pm
Woooo! Big effing surprise. A "political scientist" from Berkeley claiming that McCain sucks. I'll trust this douchebag's opinion as much as I'd trust Homer Simpson to hold a bag of donuts.
- jwl2672
October 16, 2008 at 3:52pm
Why is it that most of the Republicons who post here (examples: jw12672 & jacob1) are such reactionary turds? When William Buckley died, the average Conservative IQ took a precipitous plunge...
- porkido
October 16, 2008 at 4:19pm
"douchebag"
That's it! I've been long searching for an appropriate descrpition of jwl2672, jacobtl, and other rightwing trolls. Thanks jwl! You came up with the goods there!
- ironyroad
October 16, 2008 at 6:22pm
A guy walks into a bar.
He takes a stool at one end of the bar. At the other end sits a woman, alone.
The guy motions the bartender over, points to the woman and says, "I'd like to buy that douchebag a drink."
Taken aback, the bartender says, "Sir, we don't talk about our customers like that," and walks away.
The guy motions the bartender over again. He points again to the woman and says, "I'd like to buy that douchebag a drink."
Now the barkeep's a little pissed. "Listen, pal," he says, "I said we don't like that kind of language around here. If you want to buy her a drink, you'll have to show some respect." He walks away.
The guy motions him back over a third time, and points to the woman. "I'd like to buy that douchebag a drink."
The bartender throws up his hands. "Alright, alright. I'll go see what she wants. But I don't want to hear another word out of you!"
The bartender walks to the woman seated at the other end of the bar, motions back toward the guy and says, "Miss, that, um, gentleman would like to buy you a drink? What's your pleasure?"
The woman thinks for a moment and then says, "Vinegar and water."
[rimshot]
[loud, sustained applause!!]
Oh, thank you all so very much, yertookind....I'll be here til Tuesday...try the porterhouse, it's very good, rully...
- williamyard
October 16, 2008 at 8:55pm
I was struck by how one of the most distinguished senators in America, the most popular politician in America in 2000, was so visibly off-kilter in the debate, and how the debate was Obama talking about Obama and McCain talking about Obama.
Clinton had the same problem. I'm still not sure how he did it, but Obama made the contest all about him, and it worked. If when you walk into the room everyone turns and the room changes, the room is now talking about you, you've won the room. Every celebrity knows that, I thought every politician knew that.
- fougasseu
October 17, 2008 at 4:05am
I agree that the Rove era is over simply because his tactics no longer work. McCain, for some truly bizarre reason known only to himself and his advisors, keps going down that dead end street called Bill Ayers, even though every poll shows it actualy LOSES him votes. The GOP will have to try something new now that the era of Rove is dead, and good riddance to it!
- frilz1
October 17, 2008 at 6:53pm
I think the Obama campaign should get credit for long range thinking. Obama started the campaign with that thing about his name and that parody of his opponent, "did I mention he was black?". I didn't understand the significance of it at the time, but here we are, and that is all McCain seems to be offering: that Obama hangs around with the wrong people, that he is elitist and we don't know who he is.
- Nusholtz
October 17, 2008 at 6:53pm