The New Republic

*sigh* I wish it weren't. This is going to be Ohio and Texas all over again. It'll just be another Clinton victory, another drawing out of the already too destructive primary. I wish I could believe it, but I just can't.

- ackyri

April 8, 2008 at 10:48am

ackyri : yep, that about nails it.

- blackton

April 8, 2008 at 11:02am

A "gain" in which your opponent stays at or above 50 percent doesn't allow for much positive spin. You simply cannot catch an opponent who's at or above 50 percent going into polling. A consistent Hillary drop below 50 percent is the necessary precondition for any Obama-might-come-close-or-win speculation. Some polls do show exactly that, but this particular data set just isn't all that positive for Obama.

However, I'm not all that convinced that good polling results for Obama cannot hold up in Pennsylvania. Hillary has had a very bad two weeks, in which day after day she has been caught saying things that aren't true, even up to yesterday's fake "firing" of Mark Penn, which anyone who works for a living has realized was yet another Clinton lie, since if you still do the work and still get paid, you still have the job. Which is exactly what a pro-Hillary neighbor said to me last night. Her actual words about Hillary's string of dishonesty were, "I'm running out of last straws."

This could very well be a terminal death-spiral for Hillary; her negatives have reverted to the mean across the board, and she's campaigning like a rightwing talk-radio parody of herself. I'm not betting against her in Pennsylvania, but the general public turn against her seems to be irrevocable at this point, and if it does hit Pennsylvania before the voting, she might actually lose.

- rhubarbs

April 8, 2008 at 11:30am

What ackyri said.

Add me to the list of those skeptics who worry about another Ohio/Texas/California/New Jersey, in which Obama comes neck-and-neck with Clinton, trips up at the last minute and then is a victim of the revised expectations game. The one thing I'll say for this primary that wasn't true the last few times around is that nationally Obama has finally established a healthy lead in the polls, and that may influence those Pennsylvanians who are starting to get tired of the campaign and recognizing the need to nail this down.

- BHLnyc

April 8, 2008 at 12:29pm

I agree with you on that last paragraph, Rhubarbs. Anyone who is objective and many of us who aren't can see that Hillary has lost the war, and yes, the general public is against her. But I'm not convinced that Pennsylvania will demonstrate this, and for the reasons you have stated, her winning there will be all the more harmful to the party as well as all liberal interests.

- ackyri

April 8, 2008 at 12:34pm

My one caveat, as pointed out to me by one of my friends, a more optimistic Obama supporter, yesterday: there are still two weeks to go until the primary - much more time for Obama to do something with these more favorable numbers compared to the last-minute poll-screws in CA, NJ, TX, and OH. If Obama can pull this off, I'll be the first to admit my friend was onto something. But I'm not optimistic.

- ackyri

April 8, 2008 at 12:43pm