THE PLANK OCTOBER 16, 2008
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Once again, the numbers buried in CNN's debate poll are, if anything, worse for John McCain than Barack Obama's overall 58 - 31 percent "win." On the issues, it was all Obama. Poll respondents thought he would do a better job on the economy than McCain by a 59 - 35 percent margin, a better job on health care by 62 - 31 percent, and (with apologies to Joe the Plumber) a better job on taxes by 56 - 41 percent. Sixty-six percent of respondents though Obama presented his views more clearly, compared to 25 percent for McCain.
Obama was also seen as a "stronger leader" by a substantial 23 points, an improvement on his 11-point margin in the last debate. And, as before, the only categories McCain won were ones you'd rather lose: "attacks more" (an overwhelming 80 - 7 percent) and "typical politician" (54 - 35 percent).
But, once again, it's the likeability numbers that are probably most devastating to McCain. As I suggested last week (and Andrew Romano was kind enough to confirm), no candidate who was substantially less likeable on television than his opponent has won the presidency since the medium assumed its central place in American politics. In the previous debate, Obama won the likeability prize 65 - 28 percent, for a 37-point margin. This week, the margin was 48 points.
As the subject of an Oliver Stone biopic opening tomorrow could attest, it's entirely possible to win a presidential race (or two) against an opponent who voters believe knows more. Against an opponent whom voters like better, though, it means swimming against a strong tide of history.
--Christopher Orr
1 comments
McCain didn't believe people were bitter but his opening attack declared Americans are angry. John convinced me he's bitter but he picked a fight with the wrong people. He came off as a guy who had a bad day, walked in the door and kicked the dog. Then he blamed his kids for getting too much last Christmas and screamed at his wife for inviting his in-laws over. It was a poor time for McCain's advisers to encourage him to vent at the majority of people who already don't think he'll help them. John made part of the populist argument and raged at those who bilked the system but failed to admit that a gaziillion people are going broke and see plenty of wealth to spread around.
How can someone be likable when the person he is attacking represents the hope and inspiration to get them out of this mess? John, people don't fear Barack and they resent you're insulting the only person who has asked us to fix this together. People know McCain would not be angry if he was winning and that attitude won't translate to governing because he was to mad to admit that Barack had won over people his party didn't consider important.
I wonder if Joe The Plumber wasn't the sympathetic guy but the smart ass or big shot who was leaving his co-workers behind when he got the chance to be the boss? As soon as Joe put enough cash together he became a robber baron and left his Horatio Alger roots and didn't look back. We know Joe's and most of 'em are obnoxious when they get their hands on some money and can push people around. No, neither John nor his new buddy were likable.
- michael
October 16, 2008 at 11:14am