THE PLANK SEPTEMBER 1, 2008
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The War Room operators in the McCain campaign are used to fighting Democrats, not hurricanes. But unless Gustav changes course or stalls, it looks like this the McCain campaign will have to fight on two fronts--on the one side with Mother Nature, on the other, Barack Obama.
The campaign had no choice but to curtail the festivities in Minneapolis this week. In a situation like this, you weigh what the press response would be under various scenarios; operatives chat with reporters, and sound them out. In this instance they would have uniformly heard, "You aren't really going to go ahead with this are you?" and acted accordingly.
But having no choice is not the same as liking the choice you have.
While the McCain campaign can try to make the best of the situation by having Senator McCain in the Gulf, projecting leadership and contrasting himself with President Bush and his incompetent response to Katrina, Senator McCain will likely lose his single best platform for getting his message out in a clear and direct way to the American people.
The McCain campaign had two major goals this week--define Barack Obama and ensure that John McCain gave the speech of his life: distancing himself from George Bush and sharing his life's story. Gustav makes these tasks much harder to achieve. Barack Obama spoke to a record audience last week--John McCain will have to compete with a Category 3 hurricane and two million Americans displaced from their homes.
It would have been hard enough for John McCain to battle Barack Obama. Fighting Gustav as well makes his job nearly impossible.
8 comments
I don't know. With Bush and Cheney speaking and claiming victory and a sound economy, the "mock" factor would have been great; with Palin screaming into the mike and McCain grunting through another "My Friends" speech with that maniacal laughter, people would have had a clearer contrast with the Democratic ticket. And of course gather 15000 hard-core Republicans anywhere and you are likely to have some choice quotes about either Obama or Palin.
Any way, what do the Republicans have to say? Experience and national security are both off the table as issues. What is left is more tax cuts for big oil, "drill here, drill now", and "bring back the coat-hangers!" - not exactly a winning platform. The less Republicans talk, the better it is for them; the cancellation of the Convention will not a bad thing.
- icarusr
September 1, 2008 at 8:50am
Pretending to govern is what Republicans do best. And truth be told, pretending to coordinate disaster relief looks a heck of a lot more presidential than giving speeches at a party. People mistake the public's concern about "experience" with the bullet points on a resume. But for voters, "experience" is more about trust and the perception of being a steady hand. Which is exactly what McCain and Palin are conveying today. That's a win for McCain any day.
On the other hand, McCain is further reinforcing his weird, implicit idea that you can be a loyal Republican, or you can be a loyal American, but you can't be both. (His campaign manager talking today about taking off the "Republican hat" and putting on the "American hat.")
- rhubarbs
September 1, 2008 at 9:25am
If you're right, icarus, then it probably doesn't matter. If they're so damaged that they're better off without 4 days of highly orchestrated free media coverage, they're in deep trouble.
Also, they'll still have their convention, albeit a shorter one. McCain will still speak as will Palin.
- aeromonas
September 1, 2008 at 9:29am
And here's a reminder from Talking Points Memo as to exactly how engaged Senator John McCain was the LAST time a category 4 hurricane made landfall on the Louisiana coast.
talkingpointsmemo.com/.../198759.php
Happy birthday to you
Happy birthday to you
Happy birthday Mr. Senator
Happy birthday to you.
- aeromonas
September 1, 2008 at 9:38am
That pic I just linked to needs to go into an Obama campaign ad, like, yesterday.
- aeromonas
September 1, 2008 at 9:40am
I hope you're right, Howard. The last couple of months have been too full of up-down logic.
When Obama went to Iraq and al Maliki endorsed his exit timeframe, the media said it was only because McCain had the courage to get behind the Surge.
When Obama spoke before an enormous crowd of Europeans waving American flags -- not burning them -- it was in no way possible that our overseas observers might look forward to the day when they can interact again with the US in a more cooperative way. It was solely because Obama is a "celebrity". He lost ground in the polls and his favorability suffered.
When McCain threw out knee-jerk Cold War 2-style bombast against Russia, in my eyes it looked dangerously close to an escalating response. The media enthused that McCain was the only one with the courage to stand up to the big boys.
And, after a moving and unifying convention that left me feeling great about the Democratic party, its platform, and its key players, Democrats appear to be struggling to assert the most obvious case that McCain's new running mate is not only monumentally less experienced than Obama (how do people take the Republican counter argument seriously?) but a shockingly irresponsible and hard-right pick (replace sex ed with abstinence teaching alone? really?).
Last night Rick Davis accused Barack Obama of politicizing Gustav. I almost spit my coffee out on the monitor. Bet he'll lose that argument too, because it's exactly the opposite of what should happen.
I don't get this anymore.
- maybe
September 1, 2008 at 9:43am
Krugman on Gustav--and Katrina.
www.nytimes.com/.../01krugman.html
icarus, THIS stuff is why Gustav ain't no friend of Johnny Mac's.
- aeromonas
September 1, 2008 at 9:47am
Downgraded to level 2, moving west of N'Awlins, levees holding...Gustav appears to have ejaculated prematurely. From what I'm seeing, it looks like there's damage, but not Katrina-style catastrophic. That's good news for the people of the Gulf, and short-circuits attempts to capitalize on the storm politically. It may not help the GOP much. We'll see how it plays out.
- sullydog
September 1, 2008 at 12:12pm