THE PLANK MAY 10, 2007
The emerging consensus is that Rudy Giuliani is now a dead man walking, and I think that's probably right. I'd note that almost as big a problem as his now openly pro-choice views is his political strategy. As the New York Times reports, Giuliani will
try to de-emphasize the early states in which abortion opponents wield a great deal of influence. Instead they would focus on the so-called mega-primary of Feb. 5, in which voters in states like California, New York and New Jersey are likely to be more receptive to Mr. Giuliani's social views than voters in Iowa and South Carolina.
Candidates have tried hopping primary states, and it usually fails. Sometimes you can hop one state. You can't hop three.
Giuliani's best appeal to conservatives will be to convince them that he's the most electable candidate. But you can't do that if you lose the first three primaries. By the time February 5 rolls around, he's going to be buried. Indeed, his campaign might not even exist at that point.