THE PLANK MAY 10, 2007
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The emerging consensus is that Rudy Giuliani is now a dead man walking, and I think that's probably right. I'd note that almost as big a problem as his now openly pro-choice views is his political strategy. As the New York Times reports, Giuliani will
try to de-emphasize the early states in which abortion opponents wield a great deal of influence. Instead they would focus on the so-called mega-primary of Feb. 5, in which voters in states like California, New York and New Jersey are likely to be more receptive to Mr. Giuliani's social views than voters in Iowa and South Carolina.
Candidates have tried hopping primary states, and it usually fails. Sometimes you can hop one state. You can't hop three.
Giuliani's best appeal to conservatives will be to convince them that he's the most electable candidate. But you can't do that if you lose the first three primaries. By the time February 5 rolls around, he's going to be buried. Indeed, his campaign might not even exist at that point.
--Jonathan Chait
7 comments
Guiliani is, with amazing specificity, exactly what this country and the world do not need right now.
- Wandreycer1
May 10, 2007 at 2:46pm
If this was 1996, 2000, or if Kerry had won in 2004 and was largely unopposed for the Dem nominatin, Rudy's gambit might make sense, especially with California moving up their primary date. But there won't be crossover Dem/independent voters here -- if anything, the Dem race is more likely to attract would-be Rudy voters.
- Lymon1
May 10, 2007 at 3:04pm
It seems that the Republicans will be concerned about "electability" in the primary since the generic ballot favors the Democrats right now, but I doubt they will be so concerned as to nominate Guiliani. They might nominate him if they really felt that their party was in danger of long-term decline, but I don't think most Republican voters are there.
- Mrdseitzer
May 10, 2007 at 4:28pm
I think there *might* be room for a Republican to propose a "safe, legal and rare" third-way formulation for abortion, but you can't make it up as you go along. Giuliani's flailing around on this issue reminds me of McCain's slap in the face to the Christian right back in '04 - it's not that it's exactly wrong, but if you're going to try something that you *know* is going to invite backlash, at least do it competentently.
- Johnni
May 11, 2007 at 11:31am
I'll bet Giuliani will stay in the race long enough to win NY and NJ, where his hometown advantage is overwhelming. And I can easily imagine all this abortion publicity working to his advantage in California, though he probably will still come in second to McCain. (Rudy will still get killed in Florida.) So by the end of Super Tuesday, Giuliani may well have a big enough chunk of delegates to make him a player for a long time. Look, whether he wins or not, after this election the Christian Right's hold on the GOP will be seriously weakened anyway. It wasn't so long ago that wilderness-wandering Republicans looked to people like Christie Whitman and Giuliani himself as the future of the GOP: fiscally conservative, socially liberal. (Remember Bob Dole's "tolerance plank"?) As a once-Republican myself, I can only hope it'll be that way again after Bush Jr. leaves town. Rudy might even be deliberately trying to accelerate the shift.
- gwolfjr
May 11, 2007 at 1:52pm
Quit looking in the rear-view mirror, folks. Or at least look beyond the last 20 years and remember the GOP that was dominated by suburban and boardroom economic concerns, not the weird social agenda of a couple of southern-based religious denominations. It's obvious that there is a revolt of the Burkean conservatives a-brewing, that these types and the GOP's big moneymen are desperate to find an un-Bush ASAP, and that sooner or later they will reclaim the GOP and make it a national force once again, a party focused on suburbanites, not Christians; bread-and-butter tax and economic issues, not the fundie agenda. This may not happen in time for the 2008 race, but it will happen, and faster than we would like. Underestimate the Rudy-Ahnuld-northern moderate wing of the GOP at your peril.
- teplukhin
May 11, 2007 at 3:25pm
with the same sense of purpose and commitment that he showed in his Senate race against Hillary Clinton. When he bowed out of that race, for health reasons, his half-hearted campaign had already caused tremendous concern among Republicans in New York. Rudy is going nowhere, again. Neil
- purcellneil
May 12, 2007 at 10:00pm