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Go Home Or Maybe Huckabee Is A Republican's Worst Nightmare

THE PLANK DECEMBER 6, 2007

Or Maybe Huckabee Is A Republican's Worst Nightmare

BY BARRON YOUNGSMITH

On the WaPo politics blog, Chris Cillizza is asking whether Huckabee is the Democrats' worst nightmare: What if he can tie up the socially conservative, evangelical base while still appealing to independents with his authenticity and his economic populism? In Cillizza's estimation, "[t]here are clearly lines of attack available to Democrats if Huckabee becomes the nominee. But the current trepidation about that prospect speaks to just how much of an unknown variable Huckabee represents in the presidential race."

That's right, Democrats are scared of what they don't know. But a few hours of digging up info about Huck should go a long way toward assuaging those fears. As Jon Chait explained this week, Huckabee's tax plan is totally nonsensical and completely impractical. But Jon didn't even think it necessary to add that, in a general election, it would also be political suicide--as most 30 percent tax hikes on groceries, medicine, gasoline, houses, and other goods used by middle class Americans tend to be. As the Wall Street Journal put it, "[t]he fair tax would offer a bull's-eye for Democrats"--one which has already proved an excellent election issue for Dems in South Carolina.

Nor will voters be totally comfortable with someone who doesn't deign to spell "Musharraf" correctly on the national security page of his official website. Or who lays out his strategy for the War on Terror by explaining that, "[d]uring the Cold War, we had hawks and doves, but this new war requires us to be a phoenix." Or someone who didn't even know about the game-changing National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuke program until a journalist mentioned it the next day. These are only examples, but they point to a serious, exploitable weakness.

Beyond that, there are the issues of corruption, the reputation as a big spender, the coddling of rapists, Huckabee's threadbare campaign organization, and the fact that Huckabee's nomination would set off an internecine war within the Republican Party, as establishment conservatives turn against their tax-raising, big-spending, dictator-coddling, Liberal Evangelical apostate of a nominee.

Democratic strategists should be salivating over the prospect of a Huckabee candidacy, not afraid of it. To paraphrase Karl Rove mulling a possible Howard Dean nomination in 2004: Go ahead, send us that one. I dare you.

--Barron YoungSmith

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14 comments

The man is a lightweight whose honeymoon with a cynical journalistic class eager for another anti-CW maverick (who just happens to give the 2nd-tier journos superior access) will soon come to an end. If I have this right, his degree is from "Ouchita Baptist College".

You don't need to be a snob to ask whether there is ANY large and complex national institution-- public or private, for-profit or non, military educational financial whatever--  in this country that is currently headed by someone with such garbage intellectual credentials. Combine this with the man's dopey ideas on a national sales tax, his refusal to restrain school-board creationist morons in AR when he was guv, his relentlessly flippant approach to major controversies, and you have a portrait of a small-time backwoods preacher battening on the GOP's confusion and disarray.

- teplukhin2you

December 6, 2007 at 6:32pm

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I would feel a lot more confident about the Wall Street Journal's view of the so-called fair tax had Amy Schatz not written the following last week:

-- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee also favors eliminating income taxes in favor of a flat tax. He has embraced the idea of the "fair tax," which would abolish the Internal Revenue Service and income taxes for corporations and individuals in favor of a 23% sales tax on all goods and services.

online.wsj.com/.../SB119603890284403477.html [$]

Even worse, given the historic record of the editorial page, is that her article appeared on the news pages of the Journal in an article titled: "Thompson Unveils Plan for Voluntary Flat Tax." It would be nice to think Schatz actually understood the various tax plans she writes about.

- ndmackenzie

December 6, 2007 at 6:32pm

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come on, everyone here knows he will be the Republicans Vice Presidential nominee, in which case his policies won't be an issue, but his charm and personality might be worth a percentage point or two, and in McCain-Huckabee bring a serious danger. and he would be the perfect balancer for Romney.

- blackton

December 6, 2007 at 6:38pm

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"Charm and personality", blackie? What is this, American Idol?

- teplukhin2you

December 6, 2007 at 7:29pm

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Aw, come on, Tep... it's the VP job.  Cheney's self-allocation of power notwithstanding, everyone knows it's  a ceremonial position... VP's are most useful in electioneering or as diplomatic surrogates.

Then again, McCain's old, and would we really want His Huckness a heartbeat away?

- thetraytiger

December 6, 2007 at 8:27pm

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zinggg...nice one Tep, and thanks to thetraytiger for coming to my rescue. Are you new here or just a old poster with a new name? Knowing he is called Tep seems to indicate the latter.

- blackton

December 6, 2007 at 8:41pm

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No, it is definately not McCain. Romney's the man and as the previous poster noted: Romney Huckabee brings back together all the elements of the winning Republican coalition.

- sabatia

December 6, 2007 at 8:45pm

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There's a war on, remember? Two, actually -- plus a recession a-comin', storms on lots of fronts.

The guy's a cracker. A nice cracker, funny, likes Keith Richard etc but he's _still a cracker._

We can and must do a LOT better than this guy.

- teplukhin2you

December 6, 2007 at 9:08pm

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What is it with the writing around this place this week?

I pay about 8.5% in sales tax. A 30% increase in that amount is really not that much ... let's see ... one-third of 8.5 is ...  what ... say ... 2.6 percentage points, raising the total to 11.1%?

Although I haven't looked at Huckabee's material on the Fair Tax, the numbers I've heard discussed is a federal sales tax of something like 35%, which I presume would be added on to any state or local sales tax.  So, that's really over a 400% increase.

And yes, the Fair Tax is a terrible idea.  It's extremely regressive.  It requires faith that businesses will remove from their pricing the other taxes that conservatives argue are passed on to us through the product prices. And as many people know from experience, it's usually much easier to pass a sales tax increase than an income tax increase.

- epackard-02

December 6, 2007 at 10:54pm

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"Romney Huckabee brings back together all the elements of the winning Republican coalition."

But it simultaneously neglects any pretence at appealing to the centre ground. Giuliani - Huckabee, while perhaps harder to imagine, would be much more balanced.

- kyrreholm

December 7, 2007 at 5:04am

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I'd prefer McCain, but it won't be him.  Romney - Huckabee or Guliani - Huckabee would both be formidable tickets, especially against HRC.  Keep the evangelicals on board, do well with the independents, and maybe even get some crossovers.  Not bad.

- butchie b

December 7, 2007 at 11:33am

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I just can't see Guiliani-Huckabee, they might bring balance but that is only because they are opposites in so many respects. Will a Baptist minister really want to be on a ticket with a serial adulterer and abortion supporter? If he did that, everyone will call him a sell out and if Guiliani lost it would be the end of his career as well. I agree that Guiliani will want a southern conservative, but Huckabee ain't him.

- blackton

December 7, 2007 at 11:57am

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A recent incident in Greenville, SC reminds me why it's unlikely that Mike Huckabee will make it

- Anonymous

December 8, 2007 at 4:40pm

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A recent incident in Greenville, SC reminds me why it's unlikely that Mike Huckabee will make it

- Anonymous

December 8, 2007 at 4:42pm

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