The Plank

Pa Poll Has Obama Ahead

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A New PPP poll shows Obama leading 45-43 in Pennsylvania. The poll is a clear outlier -- another poll today shows Hillary Clinton ahead 50-41. Still, the direction of the polling is clearly moving Obama's way. The Real Clear Politics average of polls has Clinton's lead falling from 16 points to six.

Do I think Obama will win Pennsylvania? Probably not. Indeed, I can see a repeat of what happened in Texas and Ohio, where Clinton began with twenty plus point margins, Obama closed fast, raising hopes among his supporters that he'd win, only to fall short. A week ago, an eight-point Pennsylvania loss would have been moderately good news for Obama. By the time the primary wolls around, expectations could change to the point where it would be a huge Clinton win.

Anyway, that's your horeserace news and speculation for the day.

--Jonathan Chait

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