THE PLANK DECEMBER 2, 2009
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In an editorial calling for withdrawal from Afghanistan, National Review's John J. Miller raises a tricky question:
[W]hy will the fall of part or all of Afghanistan to the Taliban and its al-Qaeda allies endanger Pakistan? For over a decade the Taliban harbored al-Qaeda and controlled Afghanistan. The Pakistani government not only did not fail; it was far more stable than it is today. There are no signs that Pakistan’s strong army, infrastructure, and nuclear weapons will fall to its own Taliban. But if it does so, it will be because of Pakistan’s corruption, illiteracy, tolerance of modern slavery, incompetence, lack of government or popular will, and disdain for the West — not because of who rules its sparsely populated, weaker neighbor.
That could be right. The flip side is that Pakistan's government is weaker now than it was when the Taliban ruled Afghanistan. And the indigenous Islamist radicals within Pakistan seem to be far stronger, and would likely be strengthened and emboldened by a neighboring Afghanistan again mostly or entirely controlled by the Taliban. Or so the White House thinking goes, it seems.
1 comments
Hopefully something like this conversation is occurring or will occur behind closed doors with Pakistan's civilian and, more importantly, military leaders: The US would like Pakistan to allow expanded CIA operations in the country, including drone strikes in Baluchistan against Mullah Omar & Co.; try to prevent any spectacular terror attacks against India's major cities; not launch any military coup in the next 18 months; and, for an extra special cherry on top, find Bin Laden and/or Al-Zawahiri and tell the Americans where they are so we can vaporize them. In exchange, we will commit to keeping forces and resources in Afghanistan after 2011, encourage national reconciliation there and try to lessen Indian influence in Kabul. We will also push the Afghans to agree to formally recognize the border between their country and Pakistan, something that I understand (per Peter Bergen and others) is an issue that goes back to the British Raj and is a source of irritation to the Pakistanis. And we can ask India to keep talking to the Pakistanis about some kind of resolution to the status of Kashmir, though I don't think that anyone is interested in bashing heads to resolve that intractable issue. In the meantime, the Pakistanis can maintain intelligence links to lower-level Taliban if they want but also should sever any links with Taliban leaders that the US determines are major impediments to Afghan stability (Mullah Omar, Jalaluddin Haqqani, maybe Hekmatyar if he won't cooperate).
- wildboy
December 2, 2009 at 3:35pm