THE PLANK APRIL 3, 2008
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The latest CBS/New York Times poll is out and its full of provocative results. The headline (literally) is "Weak Economy Sours Public's View of Future." Among the findings: 48 percent of Americans say the economy is "fairly bad" while another 30 percent say it's "very bad." The last time the CBS/Times poll captured such pessimism was January of 1992, while the country was deep in recession.
Not surprisingly, the economy is also voters' top concern: 32 percent say it's the most important problem facing the country today. The next closest is the war, at 12 percent, with health care and the cost of fuel each running a very distant third at 7 percent.
That's not the only finding to suggest health care insecurity, which was the voters' top preoccupation at various points last year, has diminished in the face of more pressing issues. When asked to identify the "most important economic problem facing the country today," respondents place health care way down on the list, after fuel costs, unemployment, and the mortgage crisis, among others.
Still, people worried about their health care bills are bound to be more worried about the economy overall and vice versa. And there's plenty in the poll to suggest health care remains a major concern for the public. Forty-two percent of respondents say they are "very concerned" about "not having enough money to pay for [their] current health care costs"; 59 percent say they are "very concerned" about paying such bills in the future.
If you think that the solutions to most of these problems necessarily invovle creating new government programs or strengthening existing ones--in other words, if you're a liberal like me--probably the most encouraging finding is the response to this question: "Would you rather have a smaller government providing fewer services, or a bigger government providing more services?" Forty-three percent say "bigger"--the exact same percentage that says "smaller." Not since since late 1991--when, apparently, the Times first began asking the question--did the public express such favorable attitudes towards government.
Of course, an even split hardly amounts to an unqualified endorsement of government activism. For comparison, consider that, during the 1960s, when huge Democratic majorities were able to enact Medicare as part of the Great Society, more than 60 percent of Americans said they trusted government to do the right thing most of the time. It's not the exact same wording, I realize, but it seems close enough to draw a broad inference.
So what's the political lesson here? On the merits, the case for more aggressive regulation and a stronger safety net--not just in health care, but also banking, pensions, and other areas--has never been stronger. And the insecurity evident in this poll suggests people are becoming more open to these sorts of initiatives--more, certainly, than they have been in a long time.
But it seems pretty clear that the voters haven't bought into the liberal project just yet, which means the politicians who believe in it--not least among them, the eventual Democratic nominee for president--have some work to do.
Update: The latest unemployment figures are in--and the news isn't encouraging. Dean Baker has the details.
--Jonathan Cohn
9 comments
health care reform is a given because America's business can no longer afford the disaster we have now. It hamstrings their ability to compete. Some greater regulation of the financial markets is also a given. Some scaling back of the tax breaks for the very wealth and a return of the estate tax is also a given.
The rest...????? By the way what is the rest of the Liberal agenda or the Big Government agenda? I haven't heard. Has anyone? More Pell grants?
- Annabella2
April 3, 2008 at 10:40pm
Obama and I believe Clinton too have plans to offer funding for college in exchange for national service. Obviously environmental reform is going to involve large government programs/oversight.
I don't think the comparison between the 1990s question and the 1960s question about trusting the government makes any sense. the 60s question is waaaay to vague to reflect on people's viewpoints on what your talking about. People could just have easily been talking about Vietnam policy or something else.
- Maxblum13
April 4, 2008 at 2:27am
If a Democrat can't win in this climate (81% think the country's on the wrong track, 78% think they're worse off than 5 years ago, and Bush is at 28%), then he or she doesn't deserve to win. I expect, though, that as the economy worsens over the next six months, especially as unemployment rises, these sentiments will make a McCain victory all but impossible.
- bhunziker
April 4, 2008 at 3:25am
"said they trusted government to do the right thing most of the time..."
I, as an individual, can't remember that last time I had the opportunity to have direct influence over the make up and policies of JP Morgan/Chase or Goldman Sachs and their like.
I can however, remember how often I have that same opportunity with my government - every two years.
- jet
April 4, 2008 at 8:13am
The Democrats have started to haul a lot of older, white, overpaid and overweight CEOs before the cameras (e.g., big oil, the airlines, Wall Street, the food industry, etc.) on a regular basis. A terrific idea.
This is the GOP nightmare: align McCain with the robber barons and other plutocrats as we head into the general election.
If you're a CEO who has been busy laying off employees, start looking for a hotel room in Washington.
- fougasseu
April 4, 2008 at 8:15am
The Democrats have started to haul a lot of older, white, overpaid and overweight CEOs before the cameras (e.g., big oil, the airlines, Wall Street, the food industry, etc.) on a regular basis. A terrific idea.
This is the GOP nightmare: align McCain with the robber barons and other plutocrats as we head into the general election.
If you're a CEO who has been busy laying off employees, start looking for a hotel room in Washington.
- fougasseu
April 4, 2008 at 8:15am
Only 12% feel that the war is the number one issue facing the country? WTF?? What flummoxes me the most about the electorate is the fact that there's so little concern about the war, when, in fact, if there was a resolution to it our economy would almost certainly right itself. Iraq drains so much capital and creates a climate of such great uncertainty, that it's almost impossible to imagine fixing the economy without getting Iraq resolved first.
That said, I believe that Obama is in a much, much better place to make this argument to the American people. He's the only one of the three candidates who can get Iraq back on the radar as a major campaign issue, because Clinton and McCain are so badly tainted by their votes.
- BHLnyc
April 4, 2008 at 11:20am
bhunziker, McCain is going to run as a Conservative Democrat, if things go further south he might even pick Holy Joe Lieberman as his running mate. Did you see his latest ad? no mention of political party at all.
- blackton
April 4, 2008 at 11:59am
Then again, if anyone could resuscitate the Bull Moose party....
- adaglas
April 4, 2008 at 1:24pm