THE PLANK FEBRUARY 12, 2008
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I know today is primary day in Virginia, but it's never too early to start thinking about what states might change from red to blue in November. Virginia, perennial tease -- I remember the whispers that Virginia just might go Clinton in '96, and then the glee at my more conservative-leaning election party over the state's getting Democrats all hot and bothered and then dumping them soundly for Dole -- actually looks good.
There's an idea out there, mostly propagated by Republicans, that America is over the anti-Republican bitterness that fueled the '06 election and now blames Democrats equally for the country's ills, but I don't think that's true. A marker of the anti-GOP dissatisfaction and shifting political allegiances in Virginia -- even outside Northern Virginia -- is today's Richmond Times-Dispatch's primary-day editorial. The conservative state paper assembled a truly bizarre, rambling document that comes close, in a weird oblique way, to endorsing Obama. Here's an excerpt:
Few would liken Obama to Ronald Reagan, yet Obama may be the most
Reaganesque candidate in both 2008 fields. A promoter of unity and
change, Obama draws people toward him. His gestures reach out and
enfold. Come unto me, he says, all ye who are weary of the way things
are. Think about it, he adds, we're on the same side. Notice that he
yields little philosophical ground in the process.Reagan issued similar invitations, which was a major reason he moved
the nation in his direction -- even when citizens did not necessarily
embrace every plank in his platform. Reagan nudged the electorate to
the center-right; Obama has the potential to nudge it to the
center-left in ways Clinton cannot. ...Republicans have forgotten many of history's humbling lessons. They
seem as interested in identifying who doesn't belong as they are in
encouraging their countrymen to enter the tent. An authority higher
than caucuses, interest groups, and political action committees will
judge the quick and the dead. Somewhere along the line, conservatism
became the movement simultaneously of the chip on the shoulder and the
cringe. Its loudest spokesmen have perfected the aggressive whine.
-- Eve Fairbanks
6 comments
Here's what Obama has going for him:
Mark Warner down ticket.
Warner is going to cream Jim Gilmore. Jim Gilmore is the prized example of everything that's wrong with the Republican party. Every win in Virginia since 2001 has been largely based on a continual backlash against Jim Gilmore's stupidity. His ghost still haunts GOP candidates running to serve in Richmond.
Mark Warner runs up huge numbers downstate amongst blue collar whites. He'll run up huge numbers upstate (because NOVA has changed radically since he last won in 2001). Obama will create record black turnout.
The key for Obama winning Virginia is convincing NOVA moderates the following:
John McCain is a good guy. Barack Obama is a good guy. But it's time for a change of parties in DC.
- virginiacentrist
February 12, 2008 at 5:40pm
Eve, darling, light of my life,
why, oh why, were you at a conservative-leaning election party in 1996?
- bendreyfuss
February 12, 2008 at 5:57pm
Bush 2004 states where I see one candidate in a stronger position to "flip" the state to Dem in 2008:
Hillary: Iowa
Obama: Virginia, Kansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, Indiana, Louisiana
Wild Cards: Florida, Ohio, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada
- rhubarbs
February 12, 2008 at 6:18pm
Hrm, Rhubarb, what about the fact that Hillary trounced Obama in Tennessee?
- doubtofbuddha
February 12, 2008 at 7:15pm
what you posted doesn't seem all that bizarre or rambling, I actually pretty much agree with it. Reagan showed Democrats he understood them, hence Reagan Democrats, Obama shows he gets Republicans, even though he doesn't agree he does get them. I really have no idea what Hillary gets.
- blackton
February 12, 2008 at 7:48pm
A propos of Eve's earlier post on red-state Virginia's tendency to tease Dems into thinking it
- Anonymous
February 12, 2008 at 11:38pm