The New Republic

In this, I see what is probably the biggest strategic knock against Obama heading into the primaries: He's literate. He's brainy. He's serious and philosophical. He's liberal in a kind of way that excites young people. He'll go over with blue-collar types about as well as an Adlai Stevenson or a Eugene McCarthy. Or a Gary Hart. Definitely a Gary Hart. You can almost already see his "Where's The Beef" moment coming, months in advance. Hillary is just waiting for the right time. It's a shame, really. The funny name will do him in.

- g.mcentire

March 29, 2007 at 4:54pm

Is there any stone we can't turn over to try find some significance? He was 19! What's next? A critical analysis of fingerpainting he did in kindergarten, and how that shows us what kind of president he'd be? How about a critique of his kicking style when he was in the womb? I know there's a long time before the election, but jeez, can we drop this kind of story? Pleeeeeeeze?

- jblumenfeld

March 29, 2007 at 5:01pm

Think John Edwards ever wrote beat poems? (...hunt up a recent LA Times article on this: "Obama and the Blue Collars"...they explain it alot better)

- g.mcentire

March 29, 2007 at 5:10pm

It may not be my worst nightmare. But it might be, say, third worst, to have anyone read the poetry I wrote when I was 19. Much less critique it. Yikes! Remind me never to run for president!

- epicciuto

March 29, 2007 at 5:22pm

Bingo. Obama's long on charm, short on substance. The party's base are getting a good look at the guy and are distinctly unimpressed. 1) pre Zogby, African-americans are moving away from Obama in significant numbers: 2) union members have panned recent Obama appearances at labor conferences-- one worker present said Obama was "unprepared" and didn't know his stuff on health care; 3) Iowa activists are not impressed by what they've seen of Obama and have sent his numbers downward in recent weeks.

- teplukhin

March 29, 2007 at 5:30pm

This may well jumpstart Edwards-- interestingly, Obama's glib BS and "unprepared" (remarks of SEIU members in audience) performance on healthcare serve as a good foil to Edwards' depth on healthcare. From National Journal: two new polls out this week show the "Oboomlet" may be stalling or even losing ground. A Zogby poll released Tuesday showed that black Democrats, a key part of Obama's base who moved steadily into his camp during the first six weeks of his campaign, are returning to the "undecided" column. Thirty percent of black voters now support Clinton, according to Zogby, while 19 percent back Obama. In last month's Zogby survey, Obama had 36-percent support among black voters, compared to 26 percent for Clinton. Also, a new poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in Iowa shows Obama's support has dwindled in that key state. Dropping 7 points in the past month, he now trails Clinton and John Edwards by a 2-1 margin, according to the American Research Group poll. "It seems Iowans are showing up at [Obama's] rallies to get a look at him, but so far they aren't supporting him," wrote the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen.

- teplukhin

March 29, 2007 at 5:55pm

Never run for President.

- drdannyu

March 29, 2007 at 6:03pm

I hate to say it, being that I am a liberal under the age of 30 and therefore a huge Obama fan, but you're probably right. Short of Bill self-destructing the campaign with some new sex scandal, the Clinton juggernaut won't be stopped. My bet is that Hillary will win in Iowa and win big. There's 5 whole days between Iowa and Nevada. That ought to be enough time for her to sew it up. From there, well; I think we all know there isn't a Republican alive who wouldn't look puny and out of place standing next to her in the debates. America may love to hate her, but we know she's qualified to do the job.

- g.mcentire

March 29, 2007 at 6:13pm

Healthcare underlines the distinction between Obama's glib, ultimately shallow charm and Edwards' patient, dogged mastery of the most important and most complicated domestic issue. Interestingly, Obama's presence at these conferences like the SEIU one in Vegas, along with Elizabeth E's illness, seems to be making Edwards look more and more like un homme serieux.

- teplukhin

March 29, 2007 at 6:19pm

and Tep is in full gloating mode. Hold up Tep, this is going to be a long campaign...there will be ups and downs for everybody. Let's see how Obama looks a few months from now to see if he has staying power or not. (Although you will be pleased to know that I'm a little disappointed in the Obama campaign myself....I had expected to see that substance developing and it really hasn't yet. I'm not about to abandon ship yet, but as the campaign has evolved, I finding Edwards is impressing me and Barack - Selma notwithstanding - is disappointing me a little.) But that first poem, "Pops" was well worth the read.

- vanwurs

March 30, 2007 at 1:49pm

Fine, we'll see. But that's one hell of a steep learning curve for young Sen J Crew. HRC and Edwards have been studying healthcare and revising their plans for same over many years now. I'd be surprised if Obama's cram sessions on the jet will be enough to catch up.

- teplukhin

March 30, 2007 at 3:11pm

Then I intend to found an exploratory committee.

- phargle

March 30, 2007 at 11:42pm