Romney And Obama Show Major California Movement

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THE PLANK FEBRUARY 3, 2008

Romney And Obama Show Major California Movement

How fitting that America's greatest state may decide the most exciting election in years. There are a slew of new poll numbers out in Super Tuesday states this morning, but the California data is especially interesting. And, shockingly enough, two polls from the state have Mitt Romney now tied or leading John McCain! Here are the numbers:

McCain 32, Romney 24, Huckabee 13 (Field Poll)

Romney 37, McCain 34 (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby)

McCain 40, Romney 31, Huckabee 13 (McClatchy-MSNBC– read more)

Rasmussen: Romney 38, McCain 38

It's probably smart to take the average of these numbers and assume McCain is ahead by 3 points or so. Still, if Romney could score an upset (independents can only vote in the Democratic primary), it would completely change the storyline coming out of Tuesday.

In the Obama-Clinton contest, the numbers are also extremely tight. Obama now leads in two of the four polls (although his margins are smaller than Clintons):

Clinton 36, Obama 34 (Field Poll)

Obama 45, Clinton 41 (Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby)

Clinton 45, Obama 36 (McClatchy-MSNBC– read more)

Obama 45, Clinton 44

Maybe Crowley's speculation yesterday was right... 

 --Isaac Chotiner

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