The Cellphone Effect, Continued

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THE PLANK NOVEMBER 2, 2008

The Cellphone Effect, Continued

These are Barack Obama's leads in the likely voter models presently included in the Real Clear Politics average, plus the Research 2000 poll which they arbitrarily exclude.The
polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their
samples; the polls in gray do not. The cellphone polls have Obama ahead
by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points.I
did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California's
vaunted Field Poll, which does include cellphones in their samples. He
suggested to me that it was much easier to get the cooperation of
cellphone users on the weekend than during the week. How come? Because
most cellphone plans include free weekend minutes. Conversely, one
might expect that young people are particularly difficult to reach on
their landlines over the weekend, since they tend to be away from home
more (especially on a weekend when some nontrivial number of them are
out volunteering for Obama). So, while I haven't tried to verify this,
it wouldn't surprise me if the "cellphone gap" expands over the
weekend, and contracts during the week.

--Nate Silver

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