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Go Home The Huckabee Boomlet, Quantified

THE PLANK AUGUST 30, 2007

The Huckabee Boomlet, Quantified

BY TNR STAFF AND TNR STAFF

Earlier this month I wrote a dispatch from Ames about the significance of Mike Huckabee's surprising second-place finish in the Iowa GOP straw poll. My sage friends over at The Corner sneered at the idea. (See here, here, and here. I believe the subtitle to one of John Podhoretz's posts was "Anybody who says Ames matters must be smoking something illegal.") Now we have our first look at the post-Ames polling and, wouldn't you know, Huckabee appears to have surged into contention in Iowa.

According to the latest American Research Group poll, Huckabee's support there stands at 14 percent, up from 1 percent in July. Over the same time, Rudy Giuliani, the fire of J-Pod's loins, has dropped from 22 to 17, and John McCain has fallen from 17 to 5. Fred Thompson has held steady at 13, while Romney has ticked up several points, from 21 to 27, though that's pretty close to where he was in June.

Say what you will about the reliability of the ARG polls (and J-Pod, for one, has relied on them to bolster the case for Rudy), but it's hard to believe the methodology could be so flawed as to invent a massive surge of support where very little actually exists...

For what it's worth, the Democratic results are also kind of interesting: They show some encouraging movement for Obama in Iowa, and some discouraging movement for him in New Hampshire. (Really discouraging, actually.)

Also for what it's worth, Giuliani is down somewhat, and Huckabee is up quite a bit, in New Hampshire. (He's gone from 1 percent in July to 9 percent now.)

Update: A colleague points out that a phrase like "fire of my loins" might be a little sensitive, particularly in this post-Foley, post-Craig era. Let me stipulate that I didn't quite mean it in the Humbert Humbert sense. Just that, you know, J-Pod has been known to get pretty excited about Rudy from time to time.

--Noam Scheiber

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18 comments

- Robert Powell

August 30, 2007 at 4:34pm

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one of the anti-science Republicans? I have to admit I haven't paid much attention to the guy, but that's my impression. It can't be good for America if, even after the Bush disaster, Republicans are still in thrall to creationism.

- purcellneil

August 30, 2007 at 4:48pm

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and religious fundementalists just make me nervous, I wouldn't dream of voting for him and think he should be as far from the President's chair as possible. But Mike Huckabee is a very good man - sincere, honest, concrete record, very likable. He's a much better human being than Guiliani will ever be. I wish him the best.

- Wandreycer1

August 30, 2007 at 5:06pm

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I take no stance on the validity of the Huckabee boomlet, but as a former polling analyst, I can say that ARG's data is about as reliable as asking 5 people at the local bar what they think and publishing the percentages as the current horse race. Look at the month-to-month volatility of ARG's polls, in comparison with the volatility of other polls. ARG must have some pretty terrible sampling methods.

- jsb39

August 30, 2007 at 5:18pm

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I take no stance on the validity of the Huckabee boomlet, but as a former polling analyst, I can say that ARG's data is about as reliable as asking 5 people at the local bar what they think and publishing the percentages as the current horse race. Look at the month-to-month volatility of ARG's polls, in comparison with the volatility of other polls. ARG must have some pretty terrible sampling methods.

- jsb39

August 30, 2007 at 5:18pm

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I have been saying that Huckabee is a genuine threat, I remember seeing him on Bill Maher a few years ago, promoting his diet book, and the rest of the panelists were fire breathing leftist. He never once lost his composure or his humour. And frankly, he very gently made mincemeat out of the other guests, although I am sure they don't even realize it. And don't overplay his belief that God created the Universe, or has a direct hand in man's development, as any kind of a death knell for his candidacy. He might be a little to the right in his fervency, but well within the majority of Americans own belief. We are not voting for Head minister, but President. He, or Romney's, or anyone elses belief is the divine is their own business.

- blackton

August 30, 2007 at 5:40pm

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"But Mike Huckabee is a very good man - sincere, honest, concrete record, very likable. He's a much better human being than Guiliani will ever be. I wish him the best." The nation could do and has seen worse in its leaders. That being said, I am bothered by much the same being said of Carter who despite his grand stateman posture was not a good president (prime interest rate over 20%, lack of opposition or concern over Khomeini coming to power, Iran hostage situation, support to Afghan mujahadeen to provoke a Soviet invasion, and a few other problems). However, his performance on Bill Maher suggests that he may be a better politician.

- whimsy007

August 30, 2007 at 6:23pm

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ARG is indeed a questionable poll to rely on. But although the trend is less pronounced in other recent polls, ARG is not the only post-Ames poll that has an uptick for Huckabee. Zogby polled Iowa on 17-18 August, and found Huckabee at 8%. This was up from 1% in its previous Iowa poll last May. Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster, polled Iowa on 17-19 August, and also had Huckabee at 8%. This was up from 5% in its previous poll in June, and 3% in the poll before that last May. The pollsters McLaughlin (R) and Hart (D) polled Iowa on 20-21 August, apparently for the first time. They found Huckabee at 11% - higher than any past poll had ever had Huckabee in Iowa. (Numbers courtesy of http://www.pollster.com/IARep.pdf ) And now there's the ARG poll, done 26-29 August, with Huckabee at 14%. ARG might or might not turn out to be wrong, but that Huckabee is clearly trending up is supported by all the post-Ames polls. In fact, Professor Franklin's invaluable charts on Pollster.com, which feature trendlines reflecting "regression based estimators", has the trend for Huckabee now at 9,1% -- well ahead of John McCain at 5,6% and not far behind Fred Thompson (12,2%) and Rudy Giuliani (13,0%). (Romney is far ahead at 30,9%).

- jobeek2

August 30, 2007 at 6:44pm

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End italics. (Sorry about that)

- jobeek2

August 30, 2007 at 6:45pm

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End italics? Please?

- jobeek2

August 30, 2007 at 6:46pm

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John McCain, in both the McLaughlin/Hart and ARG polls, is now in *sixth* place.. Both polls have him at half of Huckabee's support, but the McLaughlin/Hart poll also has him running behind Tancredo, while ARG has Newt Gingrich doing better than him.

- jobeek2

August 30, 2007 at 6:54pm

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I guess they're disappointing if you compare to June and July, but you could also interpret him as having gotten a temporary boost, and now going back down to May levels.

- miceelf

August 30, 2007 at 7:57pm

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The odds on him making it to the White House are, of course, prohibitive, but he's certainly going to influence the race if only with his basic decency and his tax plan, which is the best one out there from any candidate of either party. His religious profile is highly over-rated as a problem by people who I think don't know very much about Southern Baptists.

- Robert Powell

August 31, 2007 at 2:09am

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than I was, as usual - I don't mind Huckabee's fundamentalism in his personal life, he actually gives them a good name. It's if he's ready to spill that in to the govt that I cannot supprt him (anti-science, etc)

- Wandreycer1

August 31, 2007 at 9:18am

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than I was, as usual - I don't mind Huckabee's fundamentalism in his personal life, he actually gives them a good name. It's if he's ready to spill that in to the govt that I cannot supprt him (anti-science, etc)

- Wandreycer1

August 31, 2007 at 9:18am

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fair point, i don't want him to win either. I like him, I don't like his policies, and I sure as hell don't want any more right wing supremes. I personally think he is the most dangerous Republican out there as far as winning in the general. Rudy (as we both know) is a loon.

- blackton

August 31, 2007 at 11:05am

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besides his mouth. I like governors for the Presidency, and Huckabee merits a look. Romney, too. For the Dems, Gov. Bill has been such a buffoon so far, he's giving guvs a bad name.

- butchie b

August 31, 2007 at 11:09am

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If I take Huckabee's name off his policies and statements, I end up really liking much of what he has to say. I think his religious beliefs are fair game to the extent that they influence his policies (for example, what's his position on teaching evolution and creationism in schools?) and his outlook on life (Bush's supposed belief that we're living in the End Days). Huckabee is partly basing his campaign on his faith, and thus it is fair game, as opposed to, say, Giuliani. He strikes me as a Republican Obama; good, decent, refreshing, with some good ideas but a few traits worrying enough to the electorate to cause problems. The Jimmy Carter comparison is interesting, I hadn't thought of that.

- literatehobo

August 31, 2007 at 11:16am

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