The Inevitability Of Hillary

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THE PLANK OCTOBER 9, 2007

The Inevitability Of Hillary

It's probably smart of John Edwards to answer questions about the inevitably of Hillary Clinton by recalling "the inevitably of Howard Dean"; but, assuming Edwards does actually believe what he's saying, I think it's wishful thinking. Dean, after all, was the unlikeliest (not to mention shakiest) of "frontrunners"--opposed by large swaths of the Democratic establishment and fueled by a relatively young and inexperienced campaign team. Hillary, by contrast, is the Democratic establishment and boasts a seasoned, almost robotically disciplined political operation. Going into the Iowa Caucuses, Dean was the equivalent of an inflated tech stock; and when he lost Iowa his bubble burst and he went into an immediate nosedive. Even if Hillary loses Iowa--and, according to the latest Des Moines Register poll, she's actually increased her lead there--she's certainly strong enough to survive such a stumble and avoid the fate Dean suffered. I don't think Hillary's victory in the Democratic primaries is inevitable per se, but it certainly looks likely. And, if she does wind up losing, I think it will be for reasons very different from those that sunk Dean.

--Jason Zengerle

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