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Go Home The Most Convoluted Case For Hillary

THE PLANK FEBRUARY 4, 2008

The Most Convoluted Case For Hillary

BY JASON ZENGERLE

It comes from longtime Clinton apparatchik--and Hill blogger--Lanny Davis (whose "author's note" protests a bit too much, don't you think?):

If You Want the ‘Dream Ticket,’ Then Vote for Hillary

I admit my bias towards Sen. Clinton because I believe so strongly she
is more experienced and ready to be president than Sen. Obama, although
I am not bashful to say I hold Sen. Obama in great esteem and admire
the way he has energized younger voters.

Watching both of them in last Friday night’s debate discussing the
issues civilly and virtually embracing after the debate was over, I was
proud to be a Democrat and to have two such outstanding candidates.
However, the final question by Wolf Blitzer as to whether they would
consider the other on the ticket begged the following reality. (To
repeat: This is entirely my opinion, not reflecting anyone’s view from
the Clinton campaign or anyone connected to the campaign.)

That reality is that it is highly unlikely — I would say virtually
impossible — for the ticket to be Obama-Clinton; but it is at least
possible that it could be Clinton-Obama. I say this not because of any
bias towards Sen. Clinton. It is just a simple reality. Sen. Clinton
would not likely want to be vice president — she is now holding the
U.S. Senate seat of the revered Sen. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., and she
hardly would enthusiastically give up that Senate seat to go back to
the White House, even as vice president.

Moreover, it is very likely Sen. Obama might feel having Sen.
Clinton as his vice president would be very difficult since, given her
fame and political influence, it would create the appearance (if not
the reality) of a co-presidency.

On the other hand, a Clinton-Obama ticket would fit into the
aspirations and goals of many supporters of both candidates: Most
Clinton supporters like Sen. Obama and believe he could make a good
president, just not yet; and most Obama supporters would love to see
him as president but might see the wisdom of waiting eight years so
when he runs for president as vice president, the issue of experience
and political maturity will not be a factor.

So, if you like Sen. Obama but want the dream ticket, vote for Sen.
Clinton! And be patient — eight years from now, he could be President
Obama.

Noted without comment. 

Late Update: It's also interesting to note--in light of Davis's insistence that he was speaking for himself and not the Clinton campaign--that Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe floated the same Obama-as-veep balloon earlier today. My comment? Great minds think alike I guess. 

Later Update: Lanny Davis emails me to note:

1. I have no official position in campaign but don't mind being called an
unofficial surrogate and old friend and supporter of Clintons.2.  I offered
these opinions on my own, without consulting with anyone from campaign.3.  I
did not talk to Terry McAuliffe at all about this piece - and haven't talked to
him except a few words of hello for a long time.

--Jason Zengerle 

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29 comments

It would be eight years that Obama could avoid voting on controversial Senate Bills. He did seem to have a bad habit of merely voting "present" for bills in Illinois.

- GulliverSwift

February 4, 2008 at 5:56pm

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Um, Bad Idea for Obama:  If Hillary loses in November, no one elected John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Lloyd Bentsen, Geraldine Ferraro, Sargent Shriver, or Edmund Muskie President (Only losing Veep Nominee as President is FDR, who spent an intervening eight years fighting Polio before being elected Gov. of NY in '28.  If she wins, no one elected Mondale or Quayle President either.  That'd be a lose/lose for Obama.  

- Crock1701

February 4, 2008 at 6:02pm

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Um, Bad Idea for Obama:  If Hillary loses in November, no one elected John Edwards, Joe Lieberman, Lloyd Bentsen, Geraldine Ferraro, Sargent Shriver, or Edmund Muskie President (Only losing Veep Nominee as President is FDR, who spent an intervening eight years fighting Polio before being elected Gov. of NY in '28.  If she wins, no one elected Mondale or Quayle President either.  That'd be a lose/lose for Obama.  

- Crock1701

February 4, 2008 at 6:02pm

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His analysis of the possibilities seems close to accurate.  I cannot imagine HRC accepting the VP position under Obama.  

However, it's at least possible to imagine HRC offering Obama the VP position if she were nominated, and it's easy to imagine party officials putting pressure on her to do so and on him to accept (as happened with JFK and LBJ).  I doubt that he'd accept.  First, Obama doesn't have the kind of Washington experience that made Mondale, Gore, and Cheney effective contributors to their respective Administrations (in different ways), so it's harder to see what responsibilities HRC could assign him that would be meaningful.  Second, given HRC's style of operating and the bad blood that's built up between her and Obama, he would likely conclude that he would not be accepted as part of her team -- his Vice-Presidency under her would be like the experience of John Nance Garner and Henry Wallace rather than that of Mondale, Gore, and Cheney.  And why give up a Senate seat for that?  Still, there is some possibility that he'd accept.

- tarfon

February 4, 2008 at 6:06pm

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Thank you for the advice, Lanny, but I'd rather just elect him now.

- adamvaught

February 4, 2008 at 6:07pm

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Why wait eight years?  Let's have our cake and eat it too.  Obama fer Prez.

- coldkoolin

February 4, 2008 at 6:07pm

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If Obama doesn't get the nomination, I say he should stay in the Senate for 8 years, work hard, and raise his profile as an achiever, not just a great orator. VP's are rarely elected, plus Obama is too high-profile to be VP now. I mean, next to Gore, Ted Kennedy, and the Clintons, he's become one of the foremost voices of the Democratic Party and the only one that's new and youthful. I don't think sitting on the sidelines for the next 4-8 years would be a good thing, especially since this time around those holding back feel he doesn't have enough experience. If he hadn't won Iowa so big and then faded out after NH, he might make sense as a VP but now he has too much to lose.

- CharlesFosterKane

February 4, 2008 at 6:16pm

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"He did seem to have a bad habit of merely voting "present" for bills in Illinois."

As is custom in the Illinois legislature, actually. Not such a bad habit.

- rozenson

February 4, 2008 at 6:27pm

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GulliverSwift, peddle that crap elsewhere. He voted present as part of a strategy that he and several other state senators came up with with the state abortion rights group. He was preventing abortion laws while providing cover for vulnerable colleagues.

Oh, the humanity!!! He voted in effective ways to get liberal goals met.

That's one of the stupidest lines promoted by the Clinton campaign, and to his discredit, taken up by Edwards. Trust me, everyone in Illinois knew where Obama stood when he was voting. He did it to protect fellow senators who also supported reproductive rights.

- miceelf

February 4, 2008 at 6:40pm

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The latest polls from SUSA look so strong for Hillary that maybe Obama should think about Lanny's suggestion. As VP, he'd be the de facto incumbent in 8 years...

CA Hillary 53% Obama 41%  +/- 3.4% (HRC +12)

MA Hillary 56% Obama 39% +/- 3.9% (HRC +17)

AL Hillary 47% Obama  49% +/- 4.0% (HRC -2+

MO Hillary 54% Obama 43% +/- 3.9% (HRC +11_

IL Hillary 30% Obama 66% +/- 3.0% (HRC -35)

OK Hillary 54% Obama 27% +/- 3.8% (HRC +27)

- dcshungu

February 4, 2008 at 6:50pm

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Since when has RFK Jr. been revered? Or, for that matter, a Senator?

- skipper2379

February 4, 2008 at 7:00pm

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Does anyone have some analysis on Obama's interest rate freeze argument against HRC?

- ralphnelle

February 4, 2008 at 7:05pm

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Methinks he doth suggest too much. He can smell it too. But being the loyal soldier that he is is giving it one last blast for print. An appeal for Obama to slow down so Hill can nose the finish line and set the world right according to Lanny and the order of how things were supposed to be. It's unseemly not to mention reckless for it to be any other way.

Well Lanny. I'm sure that you'll be able to offer all manner of sage advice from that sunny chair on the porch. You've earned it, man. What with all of that Dumpty cleanup you devoted yourself to without complaint. Just one question. Why in the world would you be coming back for more? What's that? It was good for the country? Nah....sit down. Lemme fix you a pina colada. Riesling? You got it. But if I were you I'd pass on the cheese. The aging got away and it's a tad bit rank.

- boxofrox

February 4, 2008 at 7:08pm

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Obama or any Clinton VP will have to deal with Bill.  Obama won't want any part of it, nor will any Dem of real stature.  Obama will run for Illinois governor in 2010 if Hillary wins; will stay in Senate and run in 2012 if she loses to McCain.

Also Obama does not want to go the way of Hubert Humphrey.  In the words of an obscure Tom Lehrer song.

Whatever became of you Hubert?

Has anyone heard a thing?

Once you shone on your own

Now you sit home alone

And wait for the phone

... to ring.

Once a fiery liberal spirit

But now when he speaks, he must clear it

Second fiddle's a hard part I know

When they won't even give you a bow

- LDuncan

February 4, 2008 at 7:08pm

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As usual, nothing said by a Clinton apparatchik is by accident.  Terry McAulliffe spoke with the press today and said Obama would be a tremendous choice for VP.  The strategy is obvious:  allow those who have a strong emotional connection to Obama to vote for Hillary without feeling like they are standing on the tracks of history and screaming "stop" at the locomotive that is Obama.

It's also a strategy to draft off of Obama's political skills and, forgive me, exploit his talent while keeping him on the plantation.  

Most Obama supporters hope he won't want anything to do with it.  The reason is simple: We suspect that Bill Clinton is retreating from his effort to marginalize  Obama as "the black candidate" for one reason and one reason only.  It did not work.  If the polling in the days after S. Carolina showed a surge in Obama among blacks and a cap at 25% of whites, Bill would have kept on making the Jesse Jackson like comments.

Obama is a nice guy, but if you read his first book, he is fierce against those whom he thinks don't play fair.  So I think he will say "no" to a VP request.  The only question is, will he rule it out soon, so that this tactic does not begin to gain traction.

- LDuncan

February 4, 2008 at 7:22pm

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Wait...how does Hillary losing to McCain help Obama?

- virginiacentrist

February 4, 2008 at 7:25pm

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It's funny that the reason he gives for Obama not choosing Clinton would be the disadvantages of a co-presidency.  Why shouldn't this be a concern for Hillary (with Bill)?

- webbhaymaker

February 4, 2008 at 7:28pm

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About a week and a half ago, in the midst of the clearly race-baiting Hillary/Bill tag team, Lanny Davis was on Tom Ashbrook's NPR show with two other guests. I had been supporting Hillary for at least a year at that point, feeling like she had the intelligence and knowledge of public agencies to give the stables of government a good mucking out, which they sorely need. I also believe her heart is mostly on the good and compassionate side of politics and I liked the fact that she was a woman.

But the undeniable use of race by she and Bill for their political gain was putting me off. Listening to Lanny parse and legalify the issue of who started it was the decision point for me. He reminded me of nothing so much as Alberto Gonsalves underlings testifying before congress on the attorney firing scandal in his defense of Hillary.  By the time the show was over, I was ready to vote for and contribute to Obama. Though I love Hillary dearly and would be honored to vote for her if she is the nominee, tomorrow I will be voting for Obama. Its not that she is not great, but the baggage is too heavy and the dynastic nature of her candidacy avoidable. The last eight years have provided enough parsing for a lifetime!

- sabatia

February 4, 2008 at 8:00pm

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As if.  Clinton-Obama might be a possibility if it wasn’t so obvious that Clinton despises Obama if for nothing else having the presumption to deny her what she considers an almost birthright.

Besides why would Obama have any interest in being a distant number 3 (or 4, or 5..) in a Clinton Whitehouse? He would go from being a high profile Senator and party leader in his own right to being a practical nonentity.

Hoping for Clinton-Obama only makes sense if all you care about is the symbolism of identity politics. My guess is that Obama at least has a lot more in mind than that.

- whalt

February 4, 2008 at 8:30pm

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JFK/LBJ didn't have a lot of love for each other either, but these two BOTH put themselves first and public policy second (CLinton is obvious, and so is the reason Obama didn't risk a penny of his immense political capital as a senator on anything more controversial than Avian Bird Flu).  

So while it would be good for the party and the nation for them to run together and have a strong ticket, the loser will be like Ted Kennedy was to Jimmy Carter should the other win the Presidency

- Lymon1

February 4, 2008 at 9:20pm

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The gist of it is, Clinton would need Obama a heck of a lot more than Obama would need Clinton.  Davis and McAuliffe both know this.

- cspencef

February 4, 2008 at 11:15pm

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Winning the nomination would put Hillary in an extremely awkward situation.  On the one hand she would be under enormous pressure to pick Obama as a running mate.  On the other hand, she already has a husband who threatens to overshadow her; I'm sure she doesn't want a vice president doing the same.

I guess she would offer him VP, and then hope and pray that he turns it down.

- clifton

February 5, 2008 at 12:03am

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Earlier, Jason pointed to a novel argument for Hillary Clinton's candidacy being advanced up by past

- Anonymous

February 5, 2008 at 12:06am

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Earlier, Jason pointed to a novel argument for Hillary Clinton's candidacy being advanced up by past

- Anonymous

February 5, 2008 at 12:07am

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If HRC beats Obama, loses to McCain, and McCain = Herbert Hoover, then the nation will turn to Obama.

I know, a lot of 'ifs.'

If Obama loses and stays in the Senate, he's even further from the Presidency, he'll have to hope that the Illinois governership opens up.

- mmathog

February 5, 2008 at 1:31am

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If HRC wins the nomination, she will choose Bill Richardson.

This has been a 100% lock for months now, demographically, he's just too choice to pass up.

- mmathog

February 5, 2008 at 1:32am

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Clifton is right:  Hillary will offer Obama VP and pray like hell he turns it down.  I happen to think the best strategy for a defeated Obama -- who really does want the nominee to win and go forward with a united party -- is to call HIllary and tell her he will turn down the VP position if she offers it and that she can "offer" it and have some unnamed top staffer leak to the press that she offered it and he turned it down.  That would be in the party's best interest, because if the storyline appears to be that she did not offer it to him, African-Americans (and many other Obama supporters) will be mightily upset.

- LDuncan

February 5, 2008 at 8:37am

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Forget your "dream ticket".  There are just too many reasons:

1) Hillary would not risk being overshadowed and outclassed by her running mate.

2) Obama would not want to be marginalized into a foreign funeral attender.

3) Obama would not want to be tarnished by a Clinton defeat.

4) Obama would not be a full teammate with Bill lurking around.

5) Obama is rumored to want to run for governor of Illinois.

6) Hillary, to say the least, is not fond of Obama and would resist the idea.

7) With luck, Hillary will lose and render the question moot.  Obama would never pick Hilllary as his VP.

- JackR

February 5, 2008 at 10:21am

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Move over Lanny Davis and Joe Wilson , I think Larry Johnson has produced the most unconvincing and convoluted

- Anonymous

February 19, 2008 at 11:17am

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