THE PLANK OCTOBER 7, 2009
How might Jon Corzine--whose numbers even in more recent, favorable polls hover around 40 percent--still manage to be reelected as New Jersey governor? Nate Silver explains:
Here's what this boils down to: there are probably a finite number of people willing to get out of bed and vote for Jon Corzine on November 3rd. And it's a number, moreover, that wouldn't ordinarily be enough to allow a candidate to carry the state. But the voters who don't want to vote for Corzine have two alternatives, other than voting for [GOP challenger Chris] Christie: they can vote for [independent candidate] Chris Daggett or they can sit the election out. If enough of them choose one of those options, then Corzine can still win a low-turnout election. Although Corzine remains the underdog, that possibility is indeed looking much stronger than it did a month ago, and Christie still has some work left to do to convince people that he is worth voting for.