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Go Home Today's Polls: Trouble On The Home Front

THE PLANK JULY 22, 2008

Today's Polls: Trouble On The Home Front

BY NATE SILVER

For the first time since shortly after clinching the Democratic
nomination, we now have Barack Obama as less than a 60 percent favorite
to win the election. Our simulations presently project Obama to win the
election 58.4 percent of the time, with McCain winning the remaining
41.6 percent.The main culprit for the decline are the new numbers out of Ohio, where Rasmussen
shows John McCain jumping into a 10-point lead. We have already
discussed this particular poll at length. Are the changes caused by
differences in measuring party identification? No, not really.
Rasmussen assumes a slightly redder electorate than other pollsters,
but Obama's numbers had declined among Democrats, Republicans, and
independents alike. Could there be problems related to the sampling of
young voters in this survey, who went surprisingly strongly for McCain?
That is a more viable explanation. But it still would not account for the entirety of the decline.There is also new polling out from American Research Group,
which has Florida and New Hampshire moving in John McCain's direction.
In Florida, Obama now trails by 2 after having led by 5 points, and in
New Hampshire, he leads by 2 after having led by 12.The sky is not falling for Obama in Colorado,
where Rasmussen has him retaining a 3-point lead (the lead is 7 points
before leaners are factored in). This is consistent with the polling in
Colorado throughout the election; Obama's leads have generally been in
the small single digits, but he has almost always held one.When
we throw everything into the 538 blender, what we find is Ohio rating
strictly as a toss-up. The fact that Ohio appears to be polling a point
or two behind the national numbers for Obama rather than a point or two
ahead has significant implications across the map. Viable 'Plan B'
states like Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and perhaps
Montana become even more important, as they, rather than Ohio, may now
represent the path of least resistance toward an Obama electoral
victory.

--Nate Silver 

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18 comments

It seems to me that Ohio and Florida, being densely packed with "low-information" voters are succumbing to the GOP propaganda  (Obama will eat your children, vote McCain), which has been directly aimed at them.

I'm thinking that in New Hampshire they're starting to realize that Obama meant it when it promised to raise taxes on the rich.

- GSpinks

July 22, 2008 at 8:12pm

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An Obama win in November will be a miracle, and is by no means a foregone conclusion. It will take every bit of support, $$$, shoeleather, and then some to pull it off. DO NOT WRITE OFF McCAIN. This election is going to be a photo finish like the last two. I hope the Obama team has *the math* this time.

- tomeg

July 22, 2008 at 9:10pm

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It seems to me that CA  and NY being densely packed with "low-information" voters are succumbing to the Democratic propaganda that McCain  will eat your children, vote for Obama.

- jacobt1

July 22, 2008 at 9:13pm

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"McCain  will eat your children"

Umm, that was "Send your children to die in a war on foreign soil" not "eat them" :P

- GSpinks

July 22, 2008 at 10:45pm

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...and besides, they succumbed to the Dem propaganda machine a *long* time ago; Obama just has to point at McCain and say "Republican" and he has NY and CA in the bag.

- GSpinks

July 22, 2008 at 10:46pm

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...at least tell me you didn't miss the parody between "Obama will eat your children" and McCain's recent "Republi-mercial"...

- GSpinks

July 22, 2008 at 10:48pm

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Don't waste your breath on jacobt, Spinks.  He's a full bore Obama hater, and is beyond reason.  I can't quite pinpoint what his beef might be, but for jacob, a self-identified Democrat (though not a 'good' Democrat), another eight years of Bush would seem to be preferable to an Obama presidency.  Go figure.

- aeromonas

July 22, 2008 at 11:44pm

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What we have here are co-opted and corrupted polling firms, owned and/or influenced by the same people who own the broadcast networks, which are totally co-opted and corrupted as well,  attempting to lay the groundwork for a scenario in which the election is once again stolen by the Republican Party and corporate America.

They are playing up this McCain has a chance of winning FANTASY, in the hopes of getting the ignorant and uninformed to swallow the coming attempts at election fraud. Doubtless there operatives at Diebold and the other election machine manufacturers, which are bought and paid for by Republican Party interests, are at this very moment rigging the machines so that every vote for Obama shows up as a vote for McCain.

During the Democratic primary there were a number of African-American districts where Obama didn't get a single vote in New York and a few other places.  I imagine those were the test beds for these schemes to undermine the validity of the general election.

I hope folks here at TNR will make a point of doing everything in their power to make sure that this presidential election is free, fair and totally transparent.  Because I assure you that the American people will not stand for another stolen election, and no amount of polling propaganda will change that.  Should widescale fraud occur, I have no doubt there will be blood in the streets and tanks rolling through Dupont Circle in an effort to contain an electorate gone mad.

We will take our country back from the scum sucking weasel traitors who have stolen it from us, by any means necessary.

- AaronBBrown

July 23, 2008 at 1:12am

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aero, don't I know it! but, being the elitist I am, I feel no remose in mocking mouth-breathing, knucle-dragging "low information" voters like jacob. In fact, I almost feel obligated, if only to pointedly remind them of their intellectual and moral inferiority to myself.

Besides, with McCain churning out formulaic attack ads (Obama bad, vote for me, :D) by the dozen, and these ostensibly low-information voter states, my parody has the bite of truthiness behind it. Unfortunately for him, his mockery of my parody, a retort based on having been mocked by me repeatedly in other threads, and lack of even simple truthiness makes him simply appear stupider than usual (which just means I feel even more justified in mocking him).

Thanks for the tip, though! :D

- GSpinks

July 23, 2008 at 1:52am

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Right on, Aaron! (although I'm really hoping it doesn't come to that)

- GSpinks

July 23, 2008 at 1:53am

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I am disappointed in this post, Noam.  You take a more MSM approach to horserace numbers rather than noting that these polls are all taken before Obama's trip overseas. You are usually better than this.

- rotramel

July 23, 2008 at 4:59am

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I still haven't figured out whether AaronBBrown is actually a goofy left-wing conspiracy theorist or some conservative wag's parody thereof.

- Androscoggin

July 23, 2008 at 6:10am

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Concern about voter fraud does not a conspiracy theorist make.

- lesserliz

July 23, 2008 at 10:35am

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Actually, g, old boy, McCain can't send your kids anywhere unless they sign up first (the horror, the horror). :-)

- butchie b

July 23, 2008 at 11:20am

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And if the Republicans keep deregulating everything, and giving all the tax breaks to corporate america, enlistment will be the best employment opportunity available to young adults 18-35.

McCain will have them lining up for miles to enlist... :>

- GSpinks

July 23, 2008 at 1:38pm

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OK, and when unemployment gets to 6%, give me a call.  Poor baby.

- butchie b

July 23, 2008 at 1:58pm

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Tim Griffin is now working for McCain on the ground in the swing states like Missouri.  Tim Griffin is the vote cager who denied the voting rights of African Americans in Florida. He is working his magic now.  The fact that John McCain hired this man is tantamount to declaring war on AA voters.  Funny, Johnny Straight Talk didn't mention Griffin when he addressed the NAACP.

- fslyons

July 23, 2008 at 2:26pm

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Chris Cillizza writes up a somewhat disturbing-for-Obama Quinnipiac poll showing him basically tied with

- Anonymous

July 24, 2008 at 12:28pm

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