Courtesy of affirmative action opponent Ward Connerly, as quoted in Dahlia Lithwick's Slate piece on Barack Obama and racial preferences:
Affirmative action, says Connerly, "is probably the most
difficult race issue [Obama] will have to face." If the candidate
denounces affirmative action [in the general election], Connerly predicts, "his support among
blacks will plummet from around 80 to 50 percent."
That's right: Should Obama take the same position on affirmative action as John McCain, they will evenly split the black vote.