THE SPINE AUGUST 6, 2010
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It hasn't been much noticed in the American press--nor, for that matter, in the British press--that Bashar Assad has re-established his condominium over Lebanon. But the Middle Eastern papers have duly noted the development virtually without commenting on its importance.
Still, the meaning of the arrival in Beirut of the Syrian president and the monarch of Saudi Arabia, King Abdullah, on one plane, Abdullah's jet, cannot be lost. The Custodian of the Holy Places, as he is almost universally called in the region, has placed his hands on the tyrant of Damascus. Which means Assad has now been blessed by the king of the Arabs, the Sunni Arabs, at least.
The question now is whether that blessing of Assad will curb his old ally Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and the Hezbollah movement who are his fanatic followers as they face a U.N. judgement that it was they who killed the Sunni zillionaire prime minister Rafik Hariri in a Beirut square in 2005. Just about everybody actually knows that it was Assad's goons who committed the deed. But shifting responsibility to a few Hezbollah martinets is his price for presiding over Lebanon's calm. The truth does not matter in Arab capitals. Only the next few years...or maybe just a few months.
The question is whether President Obama had his hand in this sleazy peace deal. Frankly, I don't know. And we'll only know when Assad shows his hand in the American tug-of-war (it is nothing more right now) with Iran.
13 comments
I would have thought this bodes well for a subdued Syria during the inevitable "change" moment in Tehran? One would imagine Assad's visceral sensitivity to his near Mediterranean border outweighs any computations to his proxy Eastern one.
- IggyPop
August 6, 2010 at 6:06pm
I think I agree with IggyPop. Is it not better for Assad to be the proxy-pet of Saudi Arabia than Iran? How that bodes for the Assad Alawite dynasty is another question for another day. No ruler of Syria will ever rest until Greater Syria is restored, including The Lebanon. Sami Moubayed, editor-in-chief of Forward Magazine in Syria, also posts at AsiaTimes online. He drills down to the multitude of factions, which is useful in deciphering the coverage elsewhere. As if the truth matters in ANY capital, except maybe Helsinki and Ottawa.
- K2K
August 6, 2010 at 10:11pm
Sorry to disagree with you K2K, but Assad is not going to be the Saudi's pet. Quite the contrary. What you see is the Saudis as the latest in a line of leaders capitulating to the reality of the Syrians' regaining hegemony over Lebanon. Arguably the first was Lebanese Druze leader Walid Jumblatt (the Druze are known for being very adept at detecting where the winds are blowing, and Jumblatt sensed that the Bush-led Lebanese democracy movement was abandoned by the Obamanoids' outreach to Syria; remember, in this part of the world people follow the strong horse, not the nice one). As long as Assad sees an Iran gaining in power & influence via its steadily growing nuclear capabilities, he will not abandon the Iranians. Indeed they want a share in the action (see nascent reactor bombed by Israel in 2007; rumors have it that another one is under construction). Add to this Turkey's growing friendship with the Iranians AND the Syrians, and it should be clear that the Saudis have little hold on Assad. Keep in mind that Alawites are an offshoot of the Shi'ite who sort of tolerate them, but are quintessential heretics to the Sunnis. And I believe that Syria is geographically closer to Iran than to Saudi Arabia. Hershel Ginsburg Jerusalem / Efrata
- ginzy
August 8, 2010 at 10:13am
One would have thought the boy-president of Syria was no match for the big brutes in the region, ginzy.
- scrubby
August 8, 2010 at 9:23pm
At this point there is little, if any strategic competition between Iran & Turkey. They need each other on any number of issues. If (or perhaps, when -- pessimist that I am) Iran gets the bomb, any thought of competition will be gone unless Turkey gets its own bomb. Indeed Turkey may well be cozying up to Iran in part to gain access to Iranian nuclear technology, future or maybe even present. The NorKs have learned and demonstrated to others, most notably the Iranians, that "rogue" nuclear technology is an excellent hard currency earner. Syria has long been in the Iranian camp & there is no reason for them to leave it now. The thoughts of the "Grand Bargain" by which Syrian could be peeled away from the Iranian camp were foolishly naive -- at best. If, however, Iran is demonstrably prevented from getting the bomb in a manner that does not depend on the good will & trust of the current regime, then the picture could change. Scrubs, I don't know where & how often you read about what's been happening in the eastern end of the Mediterranean, at least as compared to those of us who live here, but Assad has long since ceased being a "boy-president" and has full control over the Syrian armed forces (once thought to be a potential source of opposition) and has shown himself to be a worthy successor to his quintessentially ruthless father. Keep in mind that the Syrian-NorK-Iranian nuclear joint venture which Israel nastily crimped was initiated under Bashar Assad's reign. Yes, he formally pulled out of Lebanon under pressure from the French & USA (killing Harriri senior was definitely not nice) & then helped spark the March something democracy movement in Lebanon, especially given the support of the Bushwhackers. But Assad still managed keep his influence below the surface especially via the rebuilding and amplification of Hezbollah. With the rise of the Obamanoids & their starry-eyed policy in the middle east and how they allowed themselves to be manipulated in the UN & its Lawfare battlefields, the democracy movement in Lebanon realized that they were finished and slowly one by one they made pilgrimages to Damascus to pledge allegiance to Assad. Add to this Hezbollah's steady penetration of the Lebanese Armed Forces (the effects of which were demonstrated last week on Israel northern border at the cost of the life of a father of four) and it should be clear that Assad is sitting high in the saddle of a strong horse. I believe that it was Machiavelli who noted that in international affairs it is better to be feared than loved? He knew of what he spoke. hg
- ginzy
August 9, 2010 at 4:18am
Thanks, ginzy. I almost always appreciate your well informed posts. The exceptions, of course, being when you unnecessarily lash at my "messiah" in the White House.
- scrubby
August 9, 2010 at 6:15pm
Scrubs, and what about when I necessarily lash at your "messiah" in the White House? h. BTW, I don't recall referring to BHO as the Messiah. Gd, the Divine Mr. O., yes (after the infamous Chris Matthews interview with ??) but I don't think I called him messiah. Keep in mind that in Judaism, the messiah is to be (and note the future tense) a human without any divine qualities. hg
- ginzy
August 10, 2010 at 4:23am
A slightly different, but very well informed if depressing take on the Lebanon-Syria-Iran-Saudi Arabia dance by Michael Young, the editor of Beirut's Daily Start. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704388504575418881692455798.html. hg
- ginzy
August 10, 2010 at 8:41am
Point taken about the messiah, ginzy. Reminds me of when a Christian reporter asked Menacham Begin whether the coming of the messiah would be the first or second coming. (It was supposed to be a trick question, I guess) Begin, ever the politician, calmly answered that whenever the messiah comes, we should ask him: "Lord have you been here before"? "what about when I necessarily lash at your "messiah" in the White House?" That would be fine with me. Other than that silly bow before the Saudi tyrant, I can't think of any deserved lashing. But I'm a partisan, and my blinders are fully strapped on.
- scrubby
August 10, 2010 at 9:57pm
sorry I missed ginzy's entry into this thread. The wild card with Syria is they are financially stressed. Assad's June visit to Brazil and Argentina was about outreach to the Syrian diaspora for foreign investment. Unsuccessful for many reasons, not least of which is that most of the Syrian diaspora, and the Lebanese diaspora are the Christians (10 million Lebanese descent in Brazil). Iran is now financially stressed. Turkey's economy is not as strong as the glossy reports indicate. The one thing the Saudis have is money. That is what I meant about proxy-pet. Assad may be Alawite Shi'a, but Damascus is Arab. I actually think the Arabs hate the Turks and the Persians more than they hate the Zionists. Syria would like their part of Turkey back (Hatay). The two issues that tie Turkey to Syria and Iran are the Kurds, and Turkey to Iran is oil and gas, and maybe the Islamabad-Tehran-Istanbul railway. Mostly, Assad is proving to be a master of political balancing act, and The Lebanon will always be #1. The Saudis can peel Syria away from Iran. Not the U.S.
- K2K
August 11, 2010 at 1:17am
And on a black humorous note, the Israeli satirical web site "Latma" produced a pointed musical video entitled "The Three Terrors" (here) starring Erdoan (sp?, Mad Mahmoud, & Bashar Assad... obviously a takeoff on the famous "Three Tenors" concert. Worth the view & the chuckle if you appreciate black humor. The singing is done in English. And yes, in case you were wondering, this is the same "Latma" group that produced the famous video, "We Con the World" (here). And get your hot new "We Con the World" tee-shirt while they are still available. hg
- ginzy
August 11, 2010 at 8:14am
The estimable middle east mavinLee Smith at Tablet has a concise and thoughtful piece on the US sacrifice of Lebanon (here) to Syria and Hezbollah and the Shakespearean-like tragic role into which P.M. Harriri & Druze leader Jumblatt were thrust. Worth the read. hg
- ginzy
August 11, 2010 at 3:25pm
You just missed one more point of major importance. Crowley the other day justified the training of the Lebanon army and supplying them with weapon with this extra ordinary explanation that if we do not supply them with arms Iran will. The Lebanese army has a majority of Shia soldiers. That is to say Hitzbollah has a great say on what that army can do or not do. Hitzbollah remember blew up Good marines then Reagan as a response took them out of there. This was weird! But now the US is competing with Iran to supply their terror's proxy's proxy, the Lebanese army! President Obama already has Israeli blood on his hand, a sniper shot an Israeli officer over the border. Why is President Obama still calling Israel an ally? While we are at it why is he still calling Turkey an ally? (It supports terror and is allied with Iran and Syria to delivery vehicle of Iranian arms to Hitzbollah. Yuck!
- Poupic
August 11, 2010 at 4:50pm