THE SPINE DECEMBER 11, 2007
I suspect that the American
people suspect that the N.I.E. report on Iran's plans for itself as a
nuclear power is false.
There are at least two reasons for this.
The first is that, left and right, we just don't believe the Bush administration
on virtually anything and everything. I can't remember when an
administration was so reflexive about lying.
The second reason is that we have seen Ahmadinejad up close. He is an aggressive
psychopath, and--whatever the N.I.E. says--his designs are as clear as day.
Actually, like Hitler's. But the so-called informed people in those years
also thought that he would come around...that he had actually already come
This is not a sufficient analysis of the report which, however, has clearly not
convinced England, France, Germany,
and, match this, Saudi
And it hasn't persuaded one of the shrewdest British journalistic analysts of
foreign policy I read. Gideon Rachman has an article in Tuesday's FT headlined
"The myth of a grand bargain with Tehran."
And he is true realist, although--for my taste--he's a bit sentimental about
the Palestinians. Still...
One of Rachman's points is that the quickie American turn-around on Iran's atomic ambitions "will probably be a
boon to hardliners in Tehran."
has faced down the world.
Another is that "Most of the evidence suggests that the determination to get
a nuclear bomb is a national project in Iran--uniting different political
factions...The nuclear programme has become a symbol of national machismo--and
is also widely regarded as a strategic necessity, given that Iran is surrounded
by hostile powers."
If Bush believes his advisers this time he is really endangering the nation and
the world. Imagine confronting Iran when it has atomic
bombs. In retrospect, Iraq
will have been a picnic.
PS: A'jad told a news
conference today that Iran
will have 50,000 nuclear centrifuges in five years.
Read these next:
- The Security Council Will Never Curb Iran's Nuclear Appetite But The Price Of Oil, Down By Half Since Its Summer High, May Well
- Iran's Paranoid Derangement: Holocaust Denial and Why Tehran Wants a Nuclear Arsenal
- And Now That The Security Council Is About to Do Almost Nothing About Iran's Nuclear Adventures, What Will Syria Do About Its Own?