The New Republic

I must say, I'm impressed with how Europe has dealt with the NIE. It's proven their commitment to keeping Iran from getting their way.

- rozenson

December 15, 2007 at 5:20pm

My my, some people are quite dim, enriching uranium does not equal nuclear weapons.  As any nuclear physicist will tell you.

And this post really isn't worthy of any further comment, as evidenced by the lack of them, nothing more than pandering to those in the media and in the Congress who desperately need to manufacture new enemies in order to keep their hopes of controlling America and its policy alive. It's the 21st-century folks, and people in the know, were calling this crap for what it was years ago and the Bush administration can't even get their own DNI, a personal friend and associate of Dick Cheney, who they hired just this year, to keep propagating this lie.

I'm not afraid of Al Qaeda, the Taliban, or Iran, nor am I afraid of the people in our own government who maintain themselves and their positions by fear mongering, it's been the order of the day for far too long, but I've got news for them, your days are numbered, and with every tick of the clock you come closer to being relegated to the pages of the history books, and the funny papers.

Of course they'll just fall back on their next boogie man, China.  But of course nobody is going to be able to get away with demonizing them for very long, because that is the new economic golden goose. I predict that by around 2025 we'll be selling them our aircraft carriers, and they'll be the ally who takes over most of the duties of policing the world, and we'll thank them for taking the burden off our hands.

- AaronBBrown

December 16, 2007 at 4:52am

"I'm not afraid of Al Qaeda, the Taliban, or Iran"

Not even remotely afraid? I'm not a huge fear-monger, but you were alive six years and three months ago, yes?

- rozenson

December 17, 2007 at 12:56am

To AaronBBrown :

"enriching uranium does not equal nuclear weapons.  As any nuclear physicist will tell you".

Enriching uranium and / or obtaining and purifying sufficient quantities of plutonium are by all accounts the rate limiting steps to building nuclear weapons.  Once the problem of obtaining fissionable material is solved, the "weaponization" of said fissionable material is fairly straightforward.

A story that did not play outside of Israel (and relatively little here as well), is the report in Ha'aretz of the analysis by Prof. Uzi Even, a nuclear chemist and former M.K. from the hardline left-wing Meretz Party  (i.e., a certified "peacenik", but in Even's case, retaining a modicum of intellectual honesty) of the Syrian nuclear facility bombed by Israel last September.  Even argues persuasively that the facility was not a reactor but a facility for weaponizing plutonium and building bombs.  And where did Syria get the requisite plutonium?  From their good friends in North Korea.

The journalist who reported the story, Yossi Melman (a respected security and intelligence analyst) suggested that one reason for Israel's silence on the issue is to avoid embarrassing Bush & Rice who are trying to keep the fig leaf on the supposed "de-nuclearization" of North Korea, which North Korea appears to be circumventing by shipping and weaponizing its plutonium in Syria.  Some members of Congress have been briefed by the Bushies but on condition of secrecy.  But they are protesting the secrecy requirement.  See the full story here: www.haaretz.com/.../926815.html

"I''m not afraid of Al Qaeda, the Taliban, or Iran,"

I am sure most ostriches also feel perfectly secure when they bury their heads in the ground.

Hershel Ginsburg

(of the horns and pointed tail)

Jerusalem

- ginzy

December 17, 2007 at 5:37am

That idea sounds prety attrractive doesn't it Aaron?

And China will be a hell of a policeman. They are already showing how good they are when they support the Sudanese regime, finance generously Mugabe's "infrastructures", have strange dealings with Iran, minor things like that. I can't wait for the moment in which their "longa manus" reaches a defenseless US and orders around. I'm sure they will very compelled to force whatever government you have to respect your many rights...

- luispc

December 17, 2007 at 9:10am

nd many perhaps won't even tell the difference. The likes of Mr. Walmart. Since for many, it seems,  "human rights" and "democracy" is translated as "free market" and "free business" no matter what. And it seems that, from this perspective, China is best in every criteria...

- luispc

December 17, 2007 at 9:15am

Does anybody really believe that Iran has no designs on nuclear weaponry?  Iraq was a boondoggle, but Iran ain't no Iraq.  So maybe they don't have a weapons program.  But I don't believe it.  Nor do I trust the NIE.  They've plenty of ulterior motives.  Too many to help me sleep at night.  I thought the Cheney bomb-Iran people were nuts, but that doesn't mean Iran is a place of rainbows, puppies, kittens, and peace.  Diplomacy, yes, but let's also be real.  I'm not booking my next vacation to a resort on the Caspian Sea,  though the caviar is supposed to be divine.  

- MOLLYSIMON

December 17, 2007 at 1:53pm

P.S.  Just heard on NPR, no less, that Russia's selling them "rods."  That helps me sleep at night.  If they're building a reactor, I hope to hell that Israel bombs it.  

- MOLLYSIMON

December 17, 2007 at 6:17pm

Debunking the criticisms of the NIE

Intel Insider: Iran Report Ain't Political

blog.wired.com/.../unlike-most-of.html

[For starters, ignore the part of any story that talks about NIE's being a consensus document of the 16 agencies in the intelligence community. For any given assessment, maybe a dozen agencies are active participants in the process. If you're writing about a technical threat from a nation-state in Asia, the Coast Guard isn't going to have a lot to add. For a study on Iran's nuclear capabilities you can be fairly confident that between eight and a dozen agencies showed up and played major roles.

Secondly, reports that the NIE was drafted by people with a known political agenda - or acute cases of Bush Derangement Syndrome - make for entertaining political hay, but it has been my experience that the principle drafters of such assessments come from one lead agency, not the executives at the top of the food chain. Anyone who can prove that partisan hacks cherry picked the intelligence information they wanted and then strong-armed the rest of the community to go along with their conclusions would have a bombshell on their hands.... ]

I suspect some of you haven't an even read the report, please do so, so you will at least have some idea of what's being politicized and propagandized

NIE, Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

www.dni.gov/.../20071203_release.pdf

- AaronBBrown

December 18, 2007 at 4:20pm

Complementing what I said above on this idea of China being the new police of the world and the US feeling very "relieved" to be off it's present responsibilities, you should check the article running right here on TNR about China's generous sponsoring of the genocidal Sudanese regime...

- luispc

December 20, 2007 at 10:49am