THE STUMP FEBRUARY 16, 2012
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A question: Does it matter who wins the upcoming Michigan primary? I can only foresee two scenarios in which it does: First, if Romney were to lose to Santorum decisively, one could imagine the GOP establishment waking up the next morning and scouring the country for a white-knight alternative. At that point all hell breaks loose, and you and I are as likely to be the GOP nominee as Mitt Romney.
Alternatively, if Romney were to beat Santorum decisively, finally making inroads among the conservatives that have eluded him all primary-season long, one could imagine the party pretty quickly consolidating behind him. In that case, he could effectively lock up the nomination on Super Tuesday and turn to the general election.
But I don’t think either of these scenarios is very likely. Michigan is Romney’s home state, after all, meaning he probably starts with some sort of floor. Meanwhile, he’s likely to outspend Santorum by a margin of 3-to-1 or 40-to-1 or 1,700-to-1, depending on which reports you believe. So it’s hard to imagine Santorum getting too much daylight on him.
On the other hand, the polls—both in Michigan and elsewhere—have consistently shown deep conservative skepticism toward Romney. I have a hard time imagining him dispelling it between now and February 28, notwithstanding his recent claim to have suffered from severe conservatism (covered under Obamacare, fortunately).
Which leaves two probable scenarios: Either a single-digit Romney loss or a single-digit Romney win. If it’s the former, the GOP establishment will no doubt wake up on February 29 with persistent indigestion. But it’ll just be a slightly more advanced form of the same malady they’ve been suffering since South Carolina. I doubt it’ll be acute enough for them to want to blow things up and place all their chips on the next Rick Perry (which is to say, an untested candidate who looks good on paper but could easily self-destruct). In that case, we’re almost certainly still looking at a long, ugly slog to the nomination for Romney.
And if Romney wins by single-digits, it won’t be because the party has suddenly decided he’s a dreamboat, but because he deployed his millions to make mincemeat out of yet another conservative challenger. In that case, the only thing we’ll have learned from Michigan is that Romney can win when he presses his financial advantage, but not when he doesn’t, which of course we already knew. We’ll still be looking at a long, ugly slog to the nomination because—as we saw last week in Missouri, Minnesota, and Colorado—Romney is likely to lose again the second he eases up on his opponents, something a de facto nominee typically prefers to do in the spirit of party unity, and so that he looks big and confident heading into the general election.
So my guess is that Michigan changes nothing. Win or lose for Romney, we’ll still be stuck in the same pattern: Romney pulls out victories when he spends a lot of money and when the demographics tilt in his favor (i.e., proportionately fewer conservatives and more affluent people), and loses when he either doesn’t spend enough money or the demographics aren’t sufficiently in his favor. Unfortunately for Romney and the GOP, that’s a hell of a depressing way to win a presidential nomination.
Update: One clarification--I was using "single-digit" loss or victory as a short-hand for a "narrow" loss or victory. But, as some commenters have pointed out, an 8- or 9-point margin is still pretty big. Let's call it 5-6 points in either direction, then. The operative term here is "decisive," and I don't anything in that range would qualify. But I also think the final result is overwhelmingly likely to fall in that range (it's my own personal 90-percent confidence interval).
follow me on Twitter: @noamscheiber
21 comments
If the economy keeps improving and Romney gets the nomination, I am expecting Romney super pac poliltical ads featuring a group called "Economists for Truth" who issue a book called "Unfit for Command" that challenges President Obama's economic record and features testimony from former associates who say that Obama has been lying about his actions to save the economy and that the stock certificates from General Motors were fakes because the treasurer was in Kenya on the date he was supposed to have signed the certificates.
- Nusholtz
February 16, 2012 at 6:22pm
but what does it mean if romney spends a ton of money in the state of his birth and the state his father was governor in and still loses? how can you say it will not matter? Romney doesn't have unlimited funds, and who is going to want to back a likely loser in the general even if a ton of money is thrown at him. The bigwigs are likely to focus on downticket races to keep the house and get the Senate. And how much will romney be willing to shell out his own money? And who says Republicans might not just cut their losses with Romney and accept Santorum as the nominee? He, at least, should be able to get out the base so they can come close to keeping the House and maybe even picking up the Senate, even if he himself gets swamped. i would be interested to see who would do better downticket.
- blackton
February 16, 2012 at 7:08pm
There's another possible scenario: Romney wins in low-single digits without going extremely negative. If he highlights Santorum's big-government conservatism and maybe a few select extreme social comments, then he could win in a fairly positive way. That would help shorten the nomination fight in his favor. Of course, all of these scenarios assume no campaign slip-ups, something that seems unlikely given the course of the GOP campaign so far.
- polcereal
February 16, 2012 at 8:05pm
blackton - if Romney loses in the state where he grew up and his father was governor even after spending a ton of money, it's certainly not a good sign for him. but i don't see what alternative republicans have at this point unless he's truly humiliated. in which case they don't have much to lose by going with whoever the hell they feel like going with.
- Noam Scheiber
February 16, 2012 at 8:21pm
"That’s a hell of a depressing way to win a presidential nomination." It seems quite cheerful and refreshing to me. But then, I'm a Democrat.
- Dausuul
February 16, 2012 at 8:50pm
"And how much will Romney be willing to shell out his own money?" I would not be surprised if he burned up half his fortune on this race. Romney has been working toward the Presidency for years, maybe decades. And once he wins the nomination, it's do-or-die time. He won't ever get another chance if Obama beats him. The Republican Party can barely choke him down as it is, they won't give him a second try. Although in a race like this one is shaping up to be, not even Romney's money is going to make a huge difference. Romney's worth what, $250 million or so by most estimates? Obama's expected to raise more than twice that, maybe as much as $1 billion, and that's direct donations. Romney could finance the primary out of his own pocket if he had to. He won't have that option in the general.
- Dausuul
February 16, 2012 at 9:02pm
White Knight Jebbie?
- ReganaD
February 16, 2012 at 11:11pm
Noam, there's this thing called momentum. It translates into more press attention, more money, more voters looking to side with a winner and, in this instance, a greater sense that a candidate is electable. I still think Romney will pummel Santorum with negative ads enough to win Michigan. But if Rick comes out on top there, and even more so if he also wins Ohio, it's a game-changer. And given the nature of our press coverage, all Santorum has to do is win these states by one vote each for the media and public to pile on in his favor.
- Thunderroad
February 17, 2012 at 1:45am
I agree with Thunderroad. Beating Romney in his home state would give Santorum an afterburner-thrust momentum. Donors would pile on board and voters would want to go along for the ride. Republican voters don't do much that's logical. In a way, they're anarchists. That's one of the reasons they manage to nominate such bad candidates.
- magboy47.
February 17, 2012 at 2:34am
I have to admit, I usually think it's unwise to be against Schrieber, but I don't see how it can turn out in this case (assuming a non-decisive Santorum win). I would also point out that "more than ten percentage points" seems a pretty high threshold for "decisive." We're also possibly underestimating how much of Romney's appeal, such as it is, is based on inevitability and his putative electoral advantages vs. Obama. Losing in his "home state"- one of the states he's supposed to be able to wrest from Obama, especially if he overspends, has to puncture that at least somewhat. Add to that, the fact that Romney' entire general election rationale is that the economy is bad. To the extent to which the economy is improving, Romney's entire reason for being elected evaporates in a way that Santorum's doesn't (regardless of how wealthy we are, dogs will still be mating with jellyfish and the unborn are still being ground into powder or whatever). Unlike Gingrich, most conservatives don't dislike Santorum. At worst, he's a lovable loser, a little too obsessed with gays. (I am talking about how conservatives think, not how rational people think).
- miceelf
February 17, 2012 at 10:08am
Santorum hasn't broken 17% in any primary state yet.
- stanmvp48
February 17, 2012 at 11:16am
If Santorum beats Romney in his home state, it's over for Mittens. It would just demonstrate how fatally weak he is. An analogy would have been that in 2008, Hillary Clinton wasn't losing to Barack Obama, but was rather being seriously challenged by Dennis Kucinich. And Kucinich never lost a race by 18 points, like Santorum did. Mitt Romney is a terrible campaigner, he's tone deaf, he's easily thrown off message and when he does ,he makes stupid mistakes. He obviously gets bad advice - whoever told him it would be a great idea to publish an op-ed in the NY Times titled "Let Detroit go Bankrupt" should be fired. Willard can spin it anyway he wants, but Barack Obama saved GM which just posted it's biggest gains. Ever.
- dubyadoubte
February 17, 2012 at 12:23pm
hey mice, do you have any dog-jellyfish porn I can get my hands on?
- blackton
February 17, 2012 at 1:15pm
LOL, blackton. Sorry, I am married. It was my wife that may or may not have done the filming.
- miceelf
February 17, 2012 at 2:44pm
I just saw that Adelson had put up another 10M for Gingrich. That is not good for Sanatarium, is it?
- stanmvp48
February 17, 2012 at 2:50pm
Here's what Santorum told people at a Republican dinner Thursday night in Oakland County, where Romney grew up: “If we don’t repeal Obama care and reject the idea that government creates rights, then we will be the generation that lost faith with the greatness of America.” He also said that God gives people rights, not the government. “Once we throw God out of the equation … we ultimately end up at the guillotine,” Santorum said. “What makes America great is faith.” *** I don't think God gave us the right to stay alive, Mr. Santorum--the government did that. In God's country we are cannibalistic animals. Only the government can keep us from cookin' each other up and eatin' each other down. I think you need a few more brain cells, Mr. Santorum. Faith hasn't kept anybody from losing their head to the guillotine or to a tiger in the wild.
- magboy47.
February 17, 2012 at 4:27pm
Interesting, magboy. It sounds like Santorum is afraid that the Church will be guillotined if they don't succeed in wresting control of the US government from its citizens. Why else the juxtaposition of the French Revolution with American Politics? Except, the King of France declared his power to rule came from God, so it's not like being in control is actually going to keep us from guillotining them (a la the French Revolution) if the need should arise.
- GSpinks
February 17, 2012 at 6:21pm
GSpinks, just as God gave ole Louie his power, God gave Santorum his right to control where I stick my willy. It's all there in Galations.
- miceelf
February 17, 2012 at 6:33pm
Santorum is ignorant of history. He says faith trumps government, but when it does, massacres often result. The list is endless. Has Thick Rick ever read anything but the Catholic Digest? Historically, his church is one of the main perpetrators of religion-based murder. It's quite arrogant of him to bring up the guillotine. And he's brought it up more than once lately.
- magboy47.
February 17, 2012 at 7:57pm
Santorum is unelectable. Any professional Republican knows that. Romney may be weak, but he is not unelectable. That will keep Romney in the driver's seat in the Republican contest.
- Walpole
February 17, 2012 at 9:36pm
Again, I am afraid to be optimistic. But at the moment, the Republican race looks like a NASCAR race with all the drivers driving in reverse as rapidly as they can. Non-human animals (except maybe beaching whales) rarely commit suicide. Are the GOP candidates human beings?
- skahn
February 18, 2012 at 7:06pm