THE STUMP DECEMBER 19, 2011
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A PPP poll out today suggests Newt 2012 will go down as the mid-afternoon belch you get from a slightly-too-greasy ham sandwich: a reminder of an unpleasant episode in your life that fades in plenty of time for dinner.
The early CW on why Newt is flaming out is all the incoming he's taken from rivals. Here's PPP:
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative--now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.
While true, this is only the proximate cause of his demise. The real cause is that Newt was never really running for president. If you’re running for president, you raise money, build a campaign apparatus, devise a strategy that amplifies your strengths and minimizes your weaknesses. Mitt Romney is exhibit A for what it means to run for president.
Gingrich never did any of these things. And so, when the inevitable hazing came—and for Newt it was more inevitable than for most—there was zero infrastructure for managing and pushing back against it. Newt’s only chance was to catch his wave with less than a week before Iowa, by which point it would have been too late for Romney and the GOP establishment to respond. Anything else just wasn't going to work for him. And it didn’t.
Of course, the beauty of not running for president--of not even wanting to be president--is that you're not exactly heartbroken when it doesn't happen. My hunch is that Newt is perfectly happy to have achieved mere plausibility, however fleetingly he enjoyed that status. It's far preferable to actually running a campaign, to say nothing of occupying the Oval Office.
16 comments
We saw this coming. Please tell TN to stop derelicting his blogging for Twitter and to start posting more. He has good stuff. So do you, but you give us lots. I think we shouldn't have to scroll down to read it anymore.
- RJSampson1
December 19, 2011 at 2:53pm
I believe we all saw this coming except for Mr. Gingrich who declared that he was the inevitable nominee. It was like he was bobbing and weaving while taunting, "Go on try and hit me." Boom! Down Goes Gingrich.
- Nusholtz
December 19, 2011 at 3:06pm
Over? Did you say OVER???? NOTHING is over!!!! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?
- Tristan
December 19, 2011 at 3:24pm
Newt needs to drop out of the Republican race and head for North Korea. He's been working toward this his whole life - instead of jousting with an imagined radical, secular socialist regime in the US, he can go after the real thing. And just think how easy it would be to take Kim's head off of all those statues and replace it with Newt's. (And North Koreans, used to Kim's dazed expression, will take naturally to Callista's maniacal baby blues.)
- GeoffG
December 19, 2011 at 3:37pm
And now we have to worry about Ron Paul the one character in the race who is absolutely evil and who is being treated by the press as an eccentric old man.
- stanmvp48
December 19, 2011 at 3:40pm
When the GERMANS bombed Pearl Harbor?
- ballston
December 19, 2011 at 4:40pm
ballston - I believe it's a quote from Animal House.
- janus
December 19, 2011 at 5:02pm
Animal House. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0077975/quotes Bluto: Hey! What's all this laying around stuff? Why are you all still laying around here for? Stork: What the hell are we supposed to do, ya moron? We're all expelled. There's nothing to fight for anymore. D-Day: [to Bluto] Let it go. War's over, man. Wormer dropped the big one. Bluto: What? Over? Did you say "over"? Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? Hell no! Otter: [to Boon] Germans? Boon: Forget it, he's rolling. Bluto: And it ain't over now. 'Cause when the goin' gets tough... [thinks hard of something to say] Bluto: The tough get goin'! Who's with me? Let's go! [Bluto runs out, alone; then returns]
- zardoz67
December 19, 2011 at 5:02pm
Except that in the update of Animal House that is the Republican presidential primary campaign, Newt is Dean Wormer (and that would make Callista Mrs. Wormer . . . )
- timteeter
December 19, 2011 at 5:55pm
Oh, and next up, Ron Paul begins to threaten Mitt in New Hampshire. You read it here first.
- timteeter
December 19, 2011 at 5:57pm
Actually I think Newt would be the pretentious professor played by Sutherland. Cain would be Otter. Ron Paul is Niedemeyer. Perry is the other pretty boy from the other frat house.
- stanmvp48
December 19, 2011 at 5:57pm
Bachmann is the sorority girl who is giving the guy a hand job with plastic gloves. Romeny is clearly Dean Wormer.
- stanmvp48
December 19, 2011 at 6:07pm
If you wise guys try one more thing... one more, l'll kick you out of this college! No more fun of any kind!
- Nusholtz
December 19, 2011 at 8:18pm
Yes please will somebody talk straight about Ron Paul? His newsletters for example.
- Sophia
December 19, 2011 at 9:59pm
Meanwhile I think Borowitz has already decided that Trump should go to North Korea but I don't see why they wouldn't have room for Newt also.
- Sophia
December 19, 2011 at 9:59pm
Have to agree with the notion that Newt was never serious about running. His latests comments about impeaching judges who would dare disagree with congress or the executive seem expressly designed to sink his campaign, as they serve to remind evryone of the radically intemperate hot-headed loose goose on a rampage Newt of years gone by. I think this latest round of anti-judicial blathering was initiated in order to self-sabatoge his run, consciously or not.
- Haole45
December 20, 2011 at 11:51am