Breaking Down That Mccain Comeback

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NOVEMBER 6, 2007

Breaking Down That Mccain Comeback

Just another quick point about that Washington Post/ABC poll out yesterday, which shows John McCain up seven points since late September. It's telling, I think, that white evangelicals are at the forefront of the McCain resurgence.

Here's how the GOP candidates are doing among evangelicals (this is not actually posted online):

                      11/1/07   9/30/07   9/7/07   7/21/07   6/1/07   4/15/07Rudy Giuliani      24          23        25          30          32           34   John McCain       23         13        19           14          17          19   Fred Thompson   22          22        29          22          15          15   Mitt Romney         7           8          6            5            9          13   Mike Huckabee   13           9          8            4             4           3  

And here's how the GOP candidates are doing overall:

                       11/1/07   9/30/07   9/7/07   7/21/07   6/1/07   4/15/07Rudy Giuliani       33         34          28         37          34         35   John McCain        19         12          18        16           20         22   Fred Thompson    16         17          19        15           13         10   Mitt Romney        11         11          10          8           10         10Mike Huckabee      9           8           5          2             2          1  

A couple of things to note: 1.) McCain's movement among evangelicals since late September is substantially larger than his movement among Republicans overall (10 points versus 7 points). 2.) McCain is up 4* points among evangelicals since April, when he was still considered a front-runner, even though he's down 3 points overall since then.

My sense is that a lot of evangelicals have given Giuliani and Thompson (and to some extent Romney, though he's far less well known) a look, didn't like what they saw on  abortion and gay marriage, and are increasingly deciding that McCain is their best bet. Could it be a sign of things to come?

*I'd originally written 14 here.

--Noam Scheiber

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