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Go Home Breaking Down That Mccain Comeback

NOVEMBER 6, 2007

Breaking Down That Mccain Comeback

BY NOAM SCHEIBER

Just another quick point about that Washington Post/ABC poll out yesterday, which shows John McCain up seven points since late September. It's telling, I think, that white evangelicals are at the forefront of the McCain resurgence.

Here's how the GOP candidates are doing among evangelicals (this is not actually posted online):

                      11/1/07   9/30/07   9/7/07   7/21/07   6/1/07   4/15/07Rudy Giuliani      24          23        25          30          32           34   John McCain       23         13        19           14          17          19   Fred Thompson   22          22        29          22          15          15   Mitt Romney         7           8          6            5            9          13   Mike Huckabee   13           9          8            4             4           3  

And here's how the GOP candidates are doing overall:

                       11/1/07   9/30/07   9/7/07   7/21/07   6/1/07   4/15/07Rudy Giuliani       33         34          28         37          34         35   John McCain        19         12          18        16           20         22   Fred Thompson    16         17          19        15           13         10   Mitt Romney        11         11          10          8           10         10Mike Huckabee      9           8           5          2             2          1  

A couple of things to note: 1.) McCain's movement among evangelicals since late September is substantially larger than his movement among Republicans overall (10 points versus 7 points). 2.) McCain is up 4* points among evangelicals since April, when he was still considered a front-runner, even though he's down 3 points overall since then.

My sense is that a lot of evangelicals have given Giuliani and Thompson (and to some extent Romney, though he's far less well known) a look, didn't like what they saw on  abortion and gay marriage, and are increasingly deciding that McCain is their best bet. Could it be a sign of things to come?

*I'd originally written 14 here.

--Noam Scheiber

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7 comments

The Southern Strategy is dead. The fundie torch is passing to a new, more pragmatic generation.

Even diehard GOPers recognize that they need a candidate who's a major national figure who can compete outside the south by running on a bread-and-butter conservative economics platform.

Romney is an obnoxious MBA whippersnapper with little appeal to anyone who doesn't speak PowerPoint. The race will come down to Rudy vs McCain. I wouldn't bet on Rudy in that race.

- teplukhin2you

November 6, 2007 at 12:35pm

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Ugh.

McCain will probably finish behind Ron Paul in Iowa (6th). Then he will probably finish behind Ron Paul in NH (4th or 5th).

go to Pollster.com and look at the trend lines:

www.pollster.com/USTopzReps.php

He is trending downward. He probably hit the bottom. Is that good news? No.

An increasingly crowded field (with Romney, Thompson, and Huckabee taking more support) has made McCain's numbers look OK in comparison to the rest of the people. But how much of his support is name recognition in a crowded field? I'd bet it's about 8% of his 14%.

Take another look at that pollster.com graph. Here are the noticable trends:

1. Rudy staying stagnant.

2. Romney and Huckabee gaining support

3. Thompson peaking a month ago

4. McCain CRASHING.

What does this mean for McCain? It means he's going to lose. He's not going to come close. He's going to crash and burn. It's going to be a huge embarassment.

- virginiacentrist

November 6, 2007 at 2:31pm

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I think we'll see a strong showing for McCain and Huckabee. Polls be damned. It's still  early in the game. Anything can happen.

- boxofrox

November 6, 2007 at 2:50pm

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Yesterday, Noam pointed out that evangelicals are apparently flocking to John McCain. Today, we learn

- Anonymous

November 7, 2007 at 10:17am

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Tep, I wouldn't count out the religious base out just yet, I think that a good majority of Republican voters and plenty of Democrats besides want a candidate that has true religious values. I think the old line agents of intolerance time has passed (the Falwells, Robertsons) but a new more tolerant generation of religiously inspired candidates like Huckabee will come to the fore. It is not all bread and butter, a lot of people want a president who partakes of the bread of the soul.

I think Rudy represents Republican pragmatic soullessness. It is all just money and power with him. Romney might come off as a policy stiff but at least people recognize a decent family and moral guy when they see him.

Given the choice between Wall street greed and Bible belt moralizing, I will take the bible belt every time, because at least they can produce a Huckabee.

- blackton

November 7, 2007 at 10:32am

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the number seem to indicate a shift.  What I can tell you is that based upon my totally non scientific observations of typical McCain rally, I usually walk away thinking that ONLY white, older, 46 inched waisted, Dick Cheney look a likes inhabit the McCain brigades...

- thejauntyboulevardier

November 7, 2007 at 11:09am

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The two biggest reasons why Sam Brownback's endorsement of John McCain matters today: 1.) Brownback

- Anonymous

November 7, 2007 at 11:17am

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