FEBRUARY 5, 2008
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Obviously if Hillary ends up holding on in Missouri (which the AP has apparently called for her) and California (where the exits suggest she's strong), she's more than entitled to bragging rights. Having said that, Obama is going to come out of tonight having won at least half of the states up for grabs, and very close to half the delegates, which either meets of exceeds the expectations for him going into today.
So why do the cable pundits seem so down on him? (I actually heard Brit Hume concede that he'll probably have enough delegates to fight on after tonight. Probably?) My sense is that this is almost entirely a function of the exit polls we in the media have been lathering ourselves in since 5:30 this evening. The polls showed Obama up in places like Massachusetts, New Jersey, Missouri, and Arizona, and many of us began to think Obama might even end the nomination fight tonight. When the actual numbers started pouring in, everyone was pretty wrong-footed.
The thing to keep in mind, though, is this: Exit polls aren't a reflection of on-the-ground reality. It's not as though Obama was actually up in all these places at 5 o'clock, and then Hillary, comeback kid that she is, reversed his charge and ground out a victory. The final results suggest he was never actually up in these places (certainly not by the margins the polls suggested.) It was a complete mirage.
Campaigns can be blamed for failing to manage expectations. But should they take the hit for the media's utter cluelessness at interpreting this data?
If I were the Obama campaign, I'd be somewhat worried about this. Their best hope here is that he ends up eking out a narrow majority of delegates (which the campaign apaprently still thinks is possible), which might once again upset expectations and give them a little boost.
Update: The networks have obviously reversed the AP's Missouri call. Skip forward a few items for more on this...
--Noam Scheiber
11 comments
MSNBC just showed Obama up by some three thousand votes in MO with 97% counted. Good God! Is that an error? Why did the AP call this for Hillary?
- timcrim
February 6, 2008 at 12:07am
If he comes within 50 in delegates and wins half of the states, and it's still called a draw, I'll be stunned, frankly. He has turned the race on its head in 2 weeks, and it's not a story?
- forrestnash
February 6, 2008 at 12:12am
the only county left to report looks to be Obama territory! Looks like MO will swing back to the Obama column perhaps!
- forrestnash
February 6, 2008 at 12:20am
Are you kidding? This was a great night for Obama. The schedule favors him now. He will win big on February 9 (LA, NE, WA) and 12 (DC, MD, VA). This will position him well for Ohio, which will probably end it.
He has nothing to be worried about.
- bhunziker
February 6, 2008 at 12:21am
Dude, TURN OFF FOX. I don't care if Bill Kristol is wearing his human mask tonight. They hate Obama because he's liberal and likely to destroy any Republican in the general. Plus Hillary is good for ratings and they don't want that gravy train to stop just yet.
CNN has been more interested in the Republican race. And they have admirably resisted playing up the barn-burner in Mizzou, correctly noting that it's basically a tie and doesn't really matter who wins (b/c of the delegates).
That said, on the predictions contest earlier today I said that the only thing I was certain about was that cable news commentators were going to use bogus exit poll data to come to completely erroneous conclusions. You can my prize to my magazine mailing address...
- marcellusw101
February 6, 2008 at 12:23am
Having said that, CNN's inclusion of super delegates in the Democratic totals is just dumb. Why lump them in with pledged delegates when they could change their mind tomorrow? I have never heard any convincing rationale for including super delegates in those running delegate counts; it's crazy misleading...
- marcellusw101
February 6, 2008 at 12:25am
Makes Clinton look like she's farther ahead, and builds the drama, marcellus.
- drdannyu
February 6, 2008 at 12:40am
So Noam's swallowed the conventional Hillary spin and actually believed she was the comeback kid, when it's actually Obama that, as forrestnash above mentions, is the actual 'come up from way behind kid'?
Noam, you still writing for that paper in Arizona? I thought you were beyond that by now.
Yea, I know, Obama was up in the polls, but as you mention, maybe the media gets too caught up in this. De-hype the poll numbers by putting them and Obama's even or slightly under on the day of the race and you've got the actual story of him coming from way behind.
- jet
February 6, 2008 at 12:43am
Here's why Obama's apparent Missouri win is such a big deal, if it holds: It goes a long way
- Anonymous
February 6, 2008 at 12:52am
Jet - I think we're saying the same thing here. I'm arguing that Obama had a pretty good night--at least relative to the expecations that existed as of 5:30 this afternoon--and that the cable pundits swalled the Cliton spin...
- Noam Scheiber
February 6, 2008 at 12:55am
"There is one thing on this February night that we do not need the final results to know: our time...
- Anonymous
February 6, 2008 at 3:28am