JANUARY 8, 2008
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Just heard Tucker Carlson say on MSNBC that the McCain people think independents are breaking almost 50-50 Obama/McCain. (Slightly more to Obama, but not much more.) I'm a little skeptical. But if true--and, even if it is, remember it's still pretty early in the day--that would be great news for McCain, and slightly below expectations for Obama, though probably not enough of a drop-off to really hurt him.
Also, keep in mind that if turnout among independents surges well beyond expecations, even splitting them 50-50 with McCain will yield Obama a huge absolute number of votes. So on some level the McCain-Obama split matters a lot less than overall independent turnout.
--Noam Scheiber
9 comments
Mayhap some wishful thinking on the McCain side?
Also, did this august blog not warn us away from information that creeps out too early in the day?
- kgrant1054
January 8, 2008 at 1:45pm
Isn't Tucker regarded as full of it anyway?
- jemerk
January 8, 2008 at 1:54pm
Yeah, I am not sure I buy that. Could be true- and I hope it is, because I think Barack will be fine and I want McCain to win here- but I would imagine there is a much bigger break tward Obama. But I have a question- isn't Paul expected to draw at least a few independents? Non-traditional voters, etc? Or no?
- boneill
January 8, 2008 at 2:03pm
"So on some level the McCain-Obama split matters a lot less than overall independent turnout. "
Ok, if Obama disappoints (largely because of a heavy independent/undecided split to McCain), consider this the first volley of spin from his camp.
And I happen to believe it's wrong. What will matter is the demographic split within the independent votes. If (as I suspect) older, repeat voters go for McCain and the youth or first time voters dominate for Obama, that spells trouble should Obama win the nomination. He will surely be pummeled and scrutiniized during the general campaign in a way he has successfully avoided to date, and that will cause some level of drop off in the ranks of the currently smitten. Combine that with the perennial drop off in voting numbers you see in this demographic, and that results in large problems.
Think of it this way: whoever bought an American Idol winner's second album?
- schrek2000
January 8, 2008 at 2:36pm
I'll believe it when I hear it from McCain campaign 2000's old chief strategist, the Weekly Standard blogger "Richelieu" aka Mike Murphy: www.weeklystandard.com/.../richelieu_only_obama_can_beat.asp
- teplukhin2you
January 8, 2008 at 3:15pm
Seems odd, since they are reporting that they are running out of democratic ballots.
- kj_593
January 8, 2008 at 3:15pm
"Think of it this way: whoever bought an American Idol winner's second album?"
11 million people, 4 million more than bought the first one.
en.wikipedia.org/.../Kelly_Clarkson
Or alerternatively,
www.riaa.com/goldandplatinumdata.php
You'll note the second album was certified 6x platinum, verses 2x for the first.
- diablevert13
January 8, 2008 at 3:49pm
Is Giuliani finished: he is running behind Paul.
I'd argue no--super duper Tuesday.
- basman
January 8, 2008 at 4:05pm
The McCain people don't know squat. They're looking at raw numbers crossed out at precincts. If it's breaking 50/50 Dem/GOP, then this is probably a function of both McCAin AND Ron Paul indies.
The GOP has two candidates playing for the indie vote: McCain/Ron Paul
The Dems only have one - Obama.
- virginiacentrist
January 8, 2008 at 4:28pm