NOVEMBER 5, 2008
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Why did the Democrats -- whose House gain currently stands at 18 seats, with some still uncalled -- somewhat underperform Congress-watchers' expectations of a 25 to 35 seat pickup last night?
The basic answer is that, downticket, yesterday simply wasn't as big a "change" election as anticipated. Take Alaska, which didn't even see fit to trade in two of the most loathed Capitol Hill denizens in decades!
If Democrats had underperformed because people were dissatisfied with Congress, which is one theory, then you would have seen two always-shaky Democratic seats, John Barrow's and Jim Marshall's in Georgia, up for grabs last night. Even in 2006, these two Democrats, then already incumbents, only squeaked by. But Barrow and Marshall coasted to victory yesterday. A number of incumbents who'd been running behind in polls, like Pennsylvania's Paul Kanjorski and Wisconsin's Steve Kagen, won in the end. And most of last night's rematches, usually a good chance for a party to flip a seat, saw the incumbent significantly strengthen his hold on his district, from Vern Buchanan in Florida to Jean Schmidt in Ohio to Baron Hill in Indiana to John Yarmuth in Kentucky to Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire.
I suppose it's disappointing that Democrats didn't have as huge a tidal wave as we'd hoped.
On the other hand: It does suggest that Americans didn't simply vote for "change" last night, from the bottom of the ticket to the top. They voted for Obama.
--Eve Fairbanks
5 comments
Eve -- this is a great observation. Most people have not yet noticed this. When I saw many of Kos's orange to blue challengers fall short I suspected this might be the case -- not a huge coattail effect. I really wanted to see Mitch McConnell go down. It wold have made the decapitation (so to speak) of the national GOP complete. I wonder what will happen in the by-election.
- stgla
November 5, 2008 at 1:51pm
Eve,
Many voters indeed voted for Obama but there were certainly many moderates who were rightfully wary of voting straight Democrat. We will see in the final analysis of the polls what actually happened. regardless, I suspect this may turn out to be a blessing in disguise. Too much power with any one party bodes poorly in most cases. It would I fear have led the Democrats to once again explore their self-destructive darker angels.
- puppins
November 6, 2008 at 12:34am
I agree with puppins. It may be that McCain's final message (don't allow the Democrats to control everything) worked, just not the way he intended.
- tilt1752
November 6, 2008 at 3:57pm
stgla - what has a real good chance of happening is that the Dems will overreach in the Congress, and lose 30 or so House seats, and a few in the Senate. The argument is never over.
- butchie b
November 6, 2008 at 4:54pm
California voters approved some socially-conservative ballot propositions, among them infamous Proposition 8 that makes gay marriages unconstitutional. And not a single California Republican Representative to the US House lost to a Democrat challenger.
I don't think there is a shift towards the center at all. I think that voters just wanted to "spank" Washington Republicans for the economic train wreck they caused. In other words, Obama was a protest vote.
- wh33pty4
November 7, 2008 at 12:41am