SUBSCRIBE NOW WELCOME BACK. Do you want to continue reading where you left off? New Republic subscribers can pick up where they left off no matter which device they were previously using. SUBSCRIBE NOW

Go Home Nailing Down Obama's Gas Tax Advantage

MAY 2, 2008

Nailing Down Obama's Gas Tax Advantage

BY NOAM SCHEIBER

Mike, I take your point about the folly of over-estimating the American voter. I think a lot of voters will bite on Hillary's gas-tax-holiday proposal. But we need to go further to figure out who wins this round.

Basically, there are two questions we need to answer here: 1.) Will Obama's position on the gas tax expand his coalition/cut into Hillary's? 2.) Will it shore up his existing coalition?

I think 1.) is an open question. I'm more optimistic than Mike for the reasons I lay out here and here, but he could easily be right. But I think 2.) is a no-brainer--among people who were already somewhat sympathetic to Obama, the gas tax debate really helps him. It reminds them what they like about Obama (he's not a panderer or a typical Washington pol) and what they dislike about Clinton (she's cynical, will do or say anything to win an election).

Going into May 6, that's a victory for Obama. If he just nails down all the voters who were leaning his way prior to Wright, he'll be tied in Indiana and up 10-15 points in North Carolina--which would be a great result for him.

Update: Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying Obama's going to fight to a draw in Indiana and win North Carolina by 10-15 points. (It's possible, but not likely.) My point is just that Obama doesn't need to win over new voters to do well on Tuesday. He just needs to hang on to all the people who were with him until about a week ago. The gas tax won't accomplish that by itself. But it's a step in the right direction.

--Noam Scheiber

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

Show all 33 comments

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

33 comments

It's worth noting that unlike the 1992 Clinton pander that Crowley references, this one has been universally scorned by editorial writers, economists and even some reliable Clinton defenders like Paul Krugman and, more importantly, Joe Andrew, the former DNC head who left her for Obama yesterday, explicitly citing this very issue.

- BHLnyc

May 2, 2008 at 11:51am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Anyone know whether the gas debate is playing out in NC too?

- virginiacentrist

May 2, 2008 at 12:02pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Scheiber sez:

"Going into May 6, that's a victory for Obama. If he just nails down all the voters who were leaning his way prior to Wright, he'll be tied in Indiana and up 10-15 points in North Carolina--which would be a great result for him."

Before I even saw the by-line of this post, I already knew who its author would be... Scheiber bungled predictions about Obama's unseen advantage in TX, OH, PA (it was all the "Rendell Effect's" fault, he would later explain), and now he is back at it. This gas thing is, well, just gas. -- an attempt to pander that would take in the gullible ones and infuriated the smart ones (who, we are told, are already supporting Obama), so it will be a wash...

- dcshungu

May 2, 2008 at 12:08pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Some of this depends on how Hillary reacts -- if I were her I'd say her plan, unlike Obama and McCain, is an immediate windfall profits tax on the oil companies with more to come later.  Hammer that over and over.  (Her proposal still stinks and Obama's rhetoric is dead-on (if his position is still timid), but that might work politically).

- Lymon1

May 2, 2008 at 12:11pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

However, to give Hillary a little credit, the fact that she jumped on the McCain panderwagon on this issue doesn't just hurt her. It also hurts McCain. When he's the only senator proposing a ridiculous idea, then that can look like "maverick" "straight talk" that bucks the Washington consensus. Hillary's plagiarism of the idea makes it look like a cynical election-eve pander, and that puts a chink in McCain's "maverick" "straight talk" brand identity. Plus, the Clinton brand is absolute poison for the GOP constituencies that are least enthused about McCain. Putting the Clinton imprimatur on any McCain proposal probably hurts McCain with these critical GOP voters.

- rhubarbs

May 2, 2008 at 12:13pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Forget  the gas tax, what about this video of Mickey Cantor calling the good folks of Indiana white ni**gers - lovely.  What a jerk.

Somehow I doubt it'll be plastered across the MSM for the next 8 weeks, although it should.  Gee I wonder why?  Ten guesses!

- Wandreycer1

May 2, 2008 at 12:23pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

VC:

HRC is running ads about gas tax relief along with an oil co. windfall profits tax in the same spot in the Raleigh/Durham area.  The ad nails BO at the same time, saying all he does is talk and no action.  BO doesn't have any ad as a response as of last night (at least none I've seen).

I've seen few decent TV ads from Obama.  I think her ads in North Carolina have been more effective than his,  by a long shot.  BO's campaign ads are lame in my opinion.  What both of them have done is blanket my household with mailed flyers and persistent robocalls (got one last night from BO's campaign, and got 3 in the last two days from HRC's campaign).

Is it swaying voters?  The local paper in Raleigh says it's not much of a factor in the voters they polled.  They implied the Wright flap is a bigger deal.

- tnmats

May 2, 2008 at 12:33pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Um, what video of Cantor?  Where did that one come fronm?

- tnmats

May 2, 2008 at 12:34pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I think Noam is right about this. But to settle it, I think we'd need to look more closely at the Indian avoters. Are they more or less educated than PA voters? How many women? How old are they? How many blue collar white males? All of that lovely stuff.

Sullivan just posted this nasty quote from Hillary. At this point I'm beginning to wonder whether she's worse than Bush, i.e., just as sophistic and dishonest (with us or against us!) but with a meanness that makes your stomach turn:

"I believe it would be important to get every member of Congress on record," she said, per NBC/NJ's MIke Memoli. "Do they stand with the hard-pressed Americans who are trying to pay their gas bills at the gas station or do they once again stand with the oil companies? That's a vote I'm going to try to get, because I want to know where people stand, and I want them to tell us - are they with us or against us when it comes to taking on the oil companies?"

- ralphnelle

May 2, 2008 at 12:35pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I'm pretty sure that video's a fake, wandrey.

- ratnerstar

May 2, 2008 at 12:36pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Wandreycer1  said:

"Forget  the gas tax, what about this video of Mickey Cantor calling the good folks of Indiana white ni**gers - lovely.  What a jerk"

I have not seen the video, and I agree that if he did refer to anyone as a nigger, he is a jerk. However, I wonder whether plastering that across Indiana would hurt or help...

- dcshungu

May 2, 2008 at 12:38pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

There are two things going on with high gasoline prices. From an environmental standpoint, these are

- Anonymous

May 2, 2008 at 12:53pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Part of the Cantor clip was apparently doctored.The director of the original film says so, and says the other part (about Indianans being "sh*t"), was taken out of context:

www.politico.com/.../Pennebaker_Clip_Doctoered.html

- hemlock41

May 2, 2008 at 1:00pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I greatly admire your writing, Mr Scheiber but the "new" politician Obama only repudiated the fruitcake Jeremiah Wright when he became a political bombshell and his advisor Austan Goolsbee told Canadian officials that Obama's anti-NAFTA stance was just for the rubes of the Rust Belt during the electoral season. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Having said that, Obama is totally correct  on the gas tax issue.

- liberal reformer

May 2, 2008 at 1:11pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

"Obama only repudiated the fruitcake Jeremiah Wright when he became a political bombshell"

Yep. Because Obama is a radical black man. He wanted to stick to his radical black man principles that he holds dear, but then it became political impossible, and he had cut ties to keep up appearances.

What else is it that you want to prove with this statement other than what I wrote above? What other meaning am I supposed to glean? That Obama is too nice of a guy and he hold onto his controversial friends for too long? I doubt you meant that. I'm thinking that your implication is that Obama's politics are close to Rev. Wright, and that he agrees with Wright on many radical racial issues, but he just let go of him because he finally was forced by sagging poll  numbers. Please - tell me another meaning to your statement.

And no, you're not a racist. But I'm sick of this BS about Wright. What the hell does Rev. Wright have to do with Barack Obama's actual character and ability to govern???

Rev. Wright is a legitimate political issue ONLY in the sense that he harms Obama's electability by convincing uneducated whites that Obama is a radical angry black man who is conning everyone with smooth talk. And that's a real issue that superdelegates will have to weigh. In other words: It's an issue because morons who are obsessed by cultural BS will make this their single-issue for this election. And that's something Democrats should worry about, though I think it's completely overblown.

But when educated/non-racist HRC supporters (I assume you qualify) say, "He only cut ties because it was politically expedient", it makes me wonder, are they so trapped in their own candidate's bubble that they actually believe that it is a REAL problem that Obama is connected to Wright - as if this has anything to do with Obama's potential performance as president?

It doesn't. It has to do with his electability. I'll BUY that argument. And it says something about Obama's human nature (as a nice guy who is loyal to friends), that he waited too long to cut ties. He's not cold and calculating enough for some.

What I won't stand for is anyone insinuating that Barack Obama, in his heart, believes any of Rev. Wright's controversial statements. And that's what you (and Taylor Marsh and Hillary's other psychofants) are disingenuously implying on a daily basis.

- virginiacentrist

May 2, 2008 at 2:32pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I agree with Noam, but what about if Obama ties the gas tax issue with the candidate's record on Iraq?  Can't he tie the tax issue with Clinton and McCain's position on the Iraq authorization vote?  He can say that here was another time when Clinton took the politically expedient position and where did it get us?

- DZilberberg

May 2, 2008 at 3:02pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Hey, is it just me, or do other folks run out of white space when these comments threads run long?  I just checked back at the original "Can Hillary Win" post and saw that there are about 20 more posts than the last time I looked, but they're all in the dark with a field of black cutting off post 80-something right in the middle.  This is not the first time it's happened.

- aeromonas

May 2, 2008 at 4:24pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Belay that.  Seems to be a Firefox problem.  Tried it with Explorer and everything's fine.

- aeromonas

May 2, 2008 at 4:26pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

aeromonas: It's not surprising that when TNR suggested that Hillary could win, a sea of black showed up to muck things up.

- virginiacentrist

May 2, 2008 at 4:39pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I just tried to post a craigslist job ad for "TNR IT Consultant" but they were going to charge me 25 bucks....

- virginiacentrist

May 2, 2008 at 4:40pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

aeromonas - I venture to guess that your Firefox issue might be somehow related to the fact that tnr.com fails w3c validation with 642 errors.

validator.w3.org/check

- ratnerstar

May 2, 2008 at 4:45pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I have a vague recollection that Bill Clinton, upon entering office, tried to raise the gas tax and might actually gotten it a little higher.  Anyway to check on that?

- SJ_LEX_LEO@YAHOO.COM

May 2, 2008 at 5:35pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Well that was easy:

http://www.slate.com/id/1037/

"The only part of the 1993 tax bill that directly affected middle-income families was a 4.3-cent-per-gallon boost in the gasoline tax. This cost the average family $45 a year and accounted for less than 10 percent of the total revenue raised. Nevertheless, it was a middle-class tax increase, not a middle-class tax cut. (Although Dole's 1982 act didn't raise gas taxes, only a few months later, Congress enacted a 5-cent-a-gallon increase in the gas tax with Dole's and President Reagan's approval.)"

- SJ_LEX_LEO@YAHOO.COM

May 2, 2008 at 5:46pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

You folks are in la-la land.  Whatever the economic and policy merits of the gas tax holiday, it's going to be a net plus for Hillary among hard-pressed working-class folk.  Hell, I nearly passed out when it cost me $56 today to fill up my damn Subaru. She wasn't going to get Thomas Friedman's vote anyway.  As far as the prognosticating goes, this is shaping up very similarly to Pennsylvania.  With the exception of Zogby (an obvious outlier), the polls show Hillary opening up her lead in IN and narrowing Obama's lead in NC.  And she does better in polls showing fewer undecideds. My guess is that the late deciders in both states will break decisively for HRC, leading to a significant win for her in IN and, at worst, a narrow loss in NC.  Although I think she has a shot at an upset there.

- porterm

May 2, 2008 at 6:04pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

I am always so swayed by a post that begins "you are in la-la land."  If only.  La-la Land would be a tremendous improvement over this Campaign From Hell.

- cspencef

May 2, 2008 at 6:16pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

porterm, show pictures of that bridge that went down in Minnesota, remind people that gas taxes pay for upkeep on roads and bridges then ask how much this tax holiday will really cost. Is there a holiday from safety? Are you really willing to risk your life for a dollar a day? She will get hammered from that. What can she say, oh I will get it later from a windfall profit tax, meanwhile hope that bridge holds up?

- blackton

May 2, 2008 at 7:34pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

porterm,

That's exactly how I read the current situation also.

The amusing thing about TNR and their lefty blogosphere la-la land is that they have three or four blogposts covering the gas tax,, a minor tactical issue, and nothing on the huge shift in the Indiana and North Carolina polls, Obama's growing credibility issue, or the continuing story of Wright. TNR comments only on the news that they can try to spin for Obama. But it makes them much less readable or informative than many other sources.

I began this campaign with my video recorder set to record Chris Matthews, Olbermann, and Meet the Press, and with Fox blocked so that I wouldn't have to se it acidentally. But, per the George Mason University and the Shorenstein Center at Harvarad studies, NBC has been wildly biased toward Obama and Fox has actually been balanced. So now I watch Fox, don't record NBC news programs, and spend much more time at RealClearPolitics and MYDD than at TNR.

TNR no longer gives an experience of being feistily informed in an independent way about what is happening that it is important. It is an echo chamber and an advocacy group, so it is just not interesting to read through very often. There is no experience of newness, freshness, or of being informed.

- pccostello

May 3, 2008 at 7:51am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

Noam,

I think Obama missed a larger opportunity here to rouse his base and swing some undecideds.  All along he's made the argument that experience does not translate into judgement.  Clinton came out hard for her gas tax suspension in an effort to appease some last minute voters and cast herself compassionate to the middles class pocketbook.  Three days later the policy wonks had weighed in unanimously; it was an ill-conceived Idea.  Obama was perfectly poised to bring up another example in which his judgement trumped Hillary's, cementing his qualification argument and returning the issue of his previous good judgements to the news cycle.

- willweiskopf

May 3, 2008 at 8:22am

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

"Obama was perfectly poised to bring up another example in which his judgement trumped Hillary's, cementing his qualification argument and returning the issue of his previous good judgements to the news cycle"

I dunno. He's running 2 attack ads and he has the support of every AP/Rueters column over the last 4 days....

- virginiacentrist

May 3, 2008 at 4:43pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

"The amusing thing about TNR and their lefty blogosphere la-la land is that they have three or four blogposts covering the gas tax,, a minor tactical issue"

Yeah. It's a minor issue! That's why both campaigns are running multiple ads on the issue in NC/IN and every wire story on the campaign features their recent rhetoric by paragraph 4 at the latest. And the (technically uncommitted) speaker of the House and Majority Leader of the House have weighed in HARSHLY against Hillary Clinton. And uncommitted Senate candidate Mark Udall was equally harsh. It's a minor issue!

Frankly - I'll be fine if Hillary picks up 2 points on this issue from knuckle draggers. I'd rather be right than stupid. And Obama will still have an unsurmountable margin in delegates, and Hillary will have pissed off tons of superdelegates with a "minor tactical issue"

- virginiacentrist

May 3, 2008 at 4:51pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

"TNR no longer gives an experience of being feistily informed in an independent way about what is happening that it is important.....There is no experience of newness, freshness, or of being informed."

You may have noticed that we're in the midst of a pointlessly long campaign where nearly every policy angle has been explored for about 10 months straight. Perhaps it's not TNR. Perhaps the media is just out of stories, and we're all impatiently waiting until the pledged delegate season is over on June 3rd and the superdelegates send Hillary away to spend a few months out of the spotlight, suffering from a Nixon-style mental breakdown while Obama unifies the party and enjoys 10 point leads over McCain, and the media interviews swing voters who say, "Wow, I wouldn't have thought about supporting Hillary, but I like this Obama fellow."

- virginiacentrist

May 3, 2008 at 4:55pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

porterm: either we are in la la land, or we have more faith than you in the "working-class" folk in regards to their ability to look past themselves and see the larger picture. There is the possibility that the "working-class" folk will bite on it; there is the possibility they'll see the larger picture and realize their savings aren't worth the cost. I doubt we'll ever know for sure because of the Bradley effect in IN.

PC: I think you may just have a bias against any news that does not validate your obvious dislike of Obama. I would like to think better of you, but admitting that Faux News provides you with news coverage that you like, I can start from the assumption you don't demand honesty from your media outlets, and just go from there. I'm actually a little surprised and all the stunts they've pulled this cycle, and not a single apology across the board.

VC: right on. Things really have been talked out; analysts are struggling to come up with material that hasn't been hashed to death, and sometimes even just giving up and going to other news in various segments.

- GSpinks

May 4, 2008 at 10:53pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

A couple of random thoughts heading into the May 6 primaries: 1.) There are four polls out today that

- Anonymous

May 5, 2008 at 7:21pm

You must be a subscriber to post comments. Subscribe today.

SHARE HIGHLIGHT

0 CHARACTERS SELECTED

TWEET THIS

POST TO TUMBLR

SHARE ON FACEBOOK

Close