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Go Home Waiting For Santorum

TIMOTHY NOAH DECEMBER 5, 2011

Waiting For Santorum

BY TIMOTHY NOAH

To experience a surge in the preseason GOP presidential primary, you need to fulfill two requirements:

1. You must have a pulse.

2. You must be brashly right-wing.

Michele Bachmann? Check. Rick Perry? Check. Herman Cain? Check. Newt Gingrich? Actually, Gingrich's past and present policy positions, like just about everything else about him, are all over the map, as Ed Kilgore pointed out on this Web site way back in March. (Newt's furtive intermittent liberalism--mainly the pork-barrelling kind--was also a theme of a 1985 Gingrich profile in the Atlantic by Nicholas Lemann that, alas, is not available online.) But rhetorically, Gingrich can spout right-wing demagoguery with the best of them. I agree with Jonathan Bernstein that any Gingrich surge must be judged an inherently unstable phenomenon, and with almost a full month left before the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus I see no reason why voters can't have one more preseason fling.

Poor Jon Huntsman certainly deserves a surge of his own, but he flunks the second requirement, if only because he served in the Obama administration. That leaves Santorum. And so the drumbeat for a Santorum surge hath commenced. Santorum has apparently spent more time in Iowa than any of the GOP candidates, Christiane Amanpour pointed out yesterday on ABC News's This Week, by way of introducing Santorum. "We keep moving up, moving up slowly," Santorum volunteered, and now "we're within the margin of error of Rick Perry and [Iowa-born] Michele Bachmann." Santorum then offered some hopeful boomlet-ology:

"So if you look at all of these little boomlets, they last about four to six weeks. Newt is in about week three. So we feel pretty good that, you know, come the middle of December and toward the end of December, as candidates are looking for a candidate they can trust, someone that is authentic, someone who knows what they believe in and why they believe it, and has a record to back up the rhetoric as to what they want to do to change this country, because we do need big changes, well, who has been doing that? Who has been out there? Who has been, you know, fighting city hall, if you will, and having success at doing it? We've got the good track record and I think that's going to pay off in the end."

Santorum then pointed out that, unlike Gingrich, "I have been married 21 years. I have 7 children, that's a factor that people are going to look at and should look at when it comes to the person you're going to have to lead the country." About Mitt Romney, he said, "There's no question that Mitt has moved [in a conservative direction]. The question is, you know, what's the sincerity of the move and whether he can be trusted?"

According to GOP strategist Ed Rogers, "the insider GOP buzz is about former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and the unpredictable potential of Congressman Ron Paul." Iowa GOP consultant Ryan Rhodes told Talking Points Memo that social conservatives are right now thinking, "‘Do I go to Santorum or Bachmann?" Tim McNulty of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has a tongue-in-cheek "Daily Santorum" blog feature, just in case. And my former colleague at Slate, Dave Weigel, has started a "Santorum Surge Watch," though I think he's mostly kidding, too. In this environment, though, today's wisecrack is tomorrow's front-runner. Let the Santorum surge begin.

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23 comments

YOu don't have to be brashly right wing, only brashly partisan. That's Huntsman's fatal flaw. It also explains the tolerance for such erstwhile heretics like Gingrich and Trump (remember his week in the sun?). Santorum probably fails #1, depending on how you define non-brain stem functioning. And in a field containing Perry and bachmann, that's saying something.

- miceelf

December 5, 2011 at 11:48am

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Surge or no surge, Santorum is a Loser and even conservative Republicans know it. At least Newt went out on top.

- wildboy

December 5, 2011 at 12:09pm

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That's odd of you to say, wildboy. I heard from a reliable source that Santorum is also a top.

- miceelf

December 5, 2011 at 12:12pm

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Tim Noah: You forgot to add in the unofficial boosts from Sarah Palin (Santorum) and Mike Huckabee (as of 10 pm Sat Dec3: Perry) influence amongst the 60+% still persuadable of likely Iowa caucus-goers in the next 29 days. George Will knows how to read all the Iowa tealeaves. Including vanderPlaat, Land, and Nance, and whoever else dog whistles to Iowa's social conservatives. Kind of hoping the Iowa Evangelicals focus more on how to deal with Ron Paul caucusees, on a major college football night. Santorum knows Evangelical Christians are less likely to watch college football. I would prefer the news echo out of Iowa is that anyone kept Ron Paul out of the top three...even if it is Rick Santorum. Never thought I would even think that.

- K2K

December 5, 2011 at 12:16pm

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Yours is a distinction without a difference, mice. Rick Santorum is so unappealing that he hasn't even had his mini-boom yet. And I don't think that he will get it, either.

- liberalref

December 5, 2011 at 12:16pm

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Actually, libref, the two less reliably conservative (but reliably partisan) examples of Gingrich and Trump would suggest the distinction makes some difference. Agree that Santorum is unappealing on nearly every level imaginable.

- miceelf

December 5, 2011 at 12:46pm

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In the debates he seems annoyed, and his smirk makes him look like he just drank a bottle of vinegar. Has he ever even once winningly smiled? Or made a really funny quip? Policy issues aside, he just ain’t coming across as likeable.

- blackton

December 5, 2011 at 12:54pm

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Blackton - I listened to Santorum speak at the Values Voters Summit back in October about the death of his son Gabriel, who died from a genetic disorder two hours after birth. He wove a very poignant tale about how he and his wife were told their son would likely die just a couple of days after he'd argued on the floor of the Senate against partial-birth abortion and found himself living his argument. While I loathe the man, I was struck by the sincerity of his story, and was genuinely moved-until he wrapped up his story with a raucous joke about how bitter he was that his wife's book about their dead son had outsold every book he'd ever published. Likeable, Santorum is not.

- janus

December 5, 2011 at 1:14pm

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Definitely not likeable. But he does vaguely resemble a cross between Jerry Seinfeld and Rob Morrow. Does that count for anything? Probably not with Iowa evangelical voters. Anyway, now that he's been mentioned here on a TNR blog, his ascent is inevitable. Let the Santorum boomlet commence!

- timteeter

December 5, 2011 at 1:31pm

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Janus - Hmm. We're all entitled to our beliefs in this realm, so I respect he and his wife's decision (although they do everything in their power not accord me the same respect for my beliefs, quite the opposite). No, he is not likable. But then I'm not one to judge - I think Herman Cain is the most charmless, unfolksy sociopath I've seen on the public stage in a long time. He does also deserve a special grand prize for right wing hypocrisy. Remember when he attacked elected officials who live outside the area they represent and take family housing allowances of some sort for it while (quite literally as our very own American genuis Newt says) doing the exact same thing? That was one of my all time Santorum favs. Remember how he stuck up for Senator Ensign after he was busted for sleeping with his staffer's wife and then trying to bribe both of them - because Ensign is *Christian* you see, he simply can't be wrong, even if he's wrong. You see. He's also the only human being alive who has ever made me cheer heartily for Sarah Palin. Remember his sexist, hypocritical comments about her running "with all those little kids at home?" Let's skip his infamous bigotry, shall we? Snubbing him is actually the one thing I'll give the Republican base high marks for.

- WandreyCer

December 5, 2011 at 2:01pm

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I just can't think of a surge of Santorum without offering a silent "thank you" to Dan Savage. Ugh.

- BryanRWA

December 5, 2011 at 2:35pm

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Elf, knowledgeable opinion in Western PA is that Santorum is definitely a bottom, not a top. Sort of like former local DJ Jeff Christie, who went on to bigger and better things as Rush Limbaugh notwithstanding his alleged arrest in 1974 for soliciting prostitution from an undercover (male) Pittsburgh police officer.

- wildboy

December 5, 2011 at 4:16pm

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I've been wondering about why Santorum hasn't had his moment. I certainly don't like him, but I don't like Bachmann, Cain, Perry, or the creature that is Newt either. My question has been "Why don't Iowa Republicans like him?" He's a Christian conservative who has been Senator from a prominent state, and he's not outwardly crazy like Bachmann.

- Jonas

December 5, 2011 at 4:19pm

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How about Dennis Miller? Seriously!

- Tgossard

December 5, 2011 at 5:10pm

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Jonas, he cried in Congress. Unmanly. Well...?

- Tgossard

December 5, 2011 at 5:12pm

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Rick got rolled when his name became an adjective in the web lexicon. In fact, I can't say his name without thinking of frothy mixtures. And that was before Savage got a hold of his last name. Rick has never been likable in my book. He's a single-issue kind of politician and panders to single-issue voters known as the "I know a gay person who is really nice but giving them equal rights its so not Biblically right" crowd. He's so vacuous and lacking of depth that I can't even muster words to describe him. At least the other candidates have something going for them. Rick has....well his Savaged nom de plume.

- singlspeed

December 5, 2011 at 5:15pm

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shoutout to Wandrey: totally agree with you on Mr. Cain. Had some fun last night with one of his staunch defenders (YES, they still exist!) at a blogpost where the Cainiac thought he deserved praise for having the 'courage, even chutzpah, to put himself out there as a black conservative' (paraphrase). I commented back that chutzpah was the better choice because chutzpah is when you murder your parents and then ask the judge for leniency because you are an orphan. I admit to being puzzled by the increasing use of the word chutzpah by people who have no idea what it really means to anyone who grew up in a Yiddish-speaking home. janus: I also watched that Value Voters Forum, but channel flipped while Santorum spoke - but, because it was C-Span, I channel flipped back the next day, and the re-run was on with Santorum starting. I thought it unreal that anyone would publicly tell that story in any forum, let alone on C-Span! Then I watched the Nov. 19 Thanksgiving Forum podcast, and Santorum told another too-personal story about a daughter who has survived. I kind of wondered when his wife is going to finally go postal. But, if Santorum and/or the Iowa Evangelicals do ANYTHING to stop Ron Paul's momentum out of Iowa, that will be a very good thing. btw, I had one commenting exchange at an Iowa Evangelical post last week - people who were very pro-Santorum. They think Rick Perry is EVIL! That is the word. Apparently because Gov. Perry endorsed Rudy Giuliani in 2008. Maybe because he only had two children...and is really a mainstream Methodist. I have never believed in conspiracy theories, but now find myself developing one about why Ron Paul's base keeps growing. Sorry - not ready to disclose it here. Just really looking forward to finding another way to stop wondering when Armeggedon is coming. And how long TNR.com is going to have the Hunstman daughters mocking Cain - time to move on to the newest Huntsman daughter YouTube. Cain is (hopefully) history! ok, not coming back if I have to see this photo of Santorum in preview mode.

- K2K

December 5, 2011 at 6:06pm

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I think Santorum's problem is more that he has 'loser' written all over him. When he lost his Senate seat, it wasn't just a defeat in the normal course of things: that bitch was taken DOWN!

- ironyroad

December 5, 2011 at 6:15pm

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K2K - the only redeeming thing about the whole Cain scenario is how little race came up, even after the women who were sexually assaulted by him turned out to be white (yes, I absolutely believe them and accord them the respect of leaving out allegedly). Sure race came up in commnetary about him, but I expected to be (pardon me) shit-bathed in it,. But it mostly just fizzled, didn't really resonate or get anyone that worked up for very long except in the very least credible quarters (Limbaugh and the hilarious spectacle of the bigoted winger loons clumsily trying to sound suddenly enlightened - ie Coulter, blog commentors - who cares?). The MSM ignored race in the Cain mess. The MSM is blind deaf and dumb in so many ways, an amoral unthinking maw that just spits out what is put in front of it - so I thought this fizzling undercurrent said something about how we MIGHT have matured as a nation just a BIT. Irony totally nails it with Santorum. How bad does it have to be when even those folks could not stand the man. His unlikability is almost at a biochemical level.

- WandreyCer

December 5, 2011 at 7:25pm

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As a dedicated organic gardener, I faithfully compost materials to keep the ecology going healthfully in our corner of the woods. Worms? Feed them to the chickens. Kitchen scraps? Into the rotating compost bin. Slugs? To the ducks. (Well, we don't keep ducks but I think kindly of them.) Chicken sh*t. Well, we mix it with wood shaving and put it around the raspberries. But there is some stuff that's just too awful to compost in any fashion. We just bury it in the darkest corner of the woods and hope the coyotes dig it up and croak there. Any Republican candidates head our way, I know where they go, as well. Come here, Ricky, Ricky, right this way, that's a nice Ricky, Ricky ...

- skahn

December 5, 2011 at 7:29pm

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I think that Santorum also suffers from a bit of the same persona that Pawlenty suffers from. He just doesn't seem like the guy to lead you against the Anti-Christ, even if he's a man of God.

- Jonas

December 5, 2011 at 10:59pm

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today's new WaPo/NBC Iowa poll shows Perry up to 11%, and Santorum stuck at 6%. The Huckabee bump is worth more than the Palin shout-out! Since they are both nicknamed Rick, prefer some distinction between them - in this thread, any Ricky here is Santorum. All you had to do was watch the C-Span lingering camera after the Iowa GOP Ronald Reagan dinner. Newt was swamped by energized people (it WAS a rousing fine speech). Santorum was the proverbial party guest in search of someone to talk to. skahn, thanks for the tip about what works for the raspberries. I have wild black raspberries that, if left untouched, will devour my house in five more years. any suggestions on whether they survive transplant, or should just be destroyed if in the wrong place, will be most welcome. I keep thinking I shall find the energy (ha, ha, ha) to utransplant some of them to create my imaginary hedge-row to keep the wandering neighbor dogs out of my back yard, a more-sun location for actually getting more berries in July. Plus, seems my new neighbors built an ugly chicken coop that now spoils my south view. just needs a coat of paint to blend in. will visit one more time tomorrow in case skahn offers raspberry advice:)

- K2K

December 6, 2011 at 11:53am

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Hey, dont forget that Vladimir Putin is running for President too. He's brash, says outrageous things, is right wing, is for a strong military, and looks great in outdoorsy photo ops, wrestling bears and all. That should give him at least a week at top of the GOP ferris wheel. OK, he can't match Santorum in the breeder category but he probably looks better with his shirt off.

- dubyadoubte

December 6, 2011 at 12:35pm

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