The Past Isn't Past In The South

by | November 4, 2008

So far I'm detecting a strong geographic tilt to the presidential race. If Obama wins Indiana, which appears likely, he will have swept the entire Midwest, along with the entire Northeast and the West Coast. The one region that is standing alone is the South. Obama will probably squeak out wins in Virginia and North Carolina, on the strength of those states importing larger numbers of non-Southerners. (And those two are surprisingly close given Obama's margin in Ohio and Pennsylvania, where he was supposed to struggle.) But the rest of the South looks like 2004. McCain is winning easily, Republican incumbents are not facing the tough races some expected, and Mary Landrieu is having a tough race.

My early take is that the entire country has moved left, and the South has stayed put.

--Jonathan Chait

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