Polling The Wisconsin Recall

by Jonathan Chait | March 10, 2011

Greg Sargent has some polling data on possible recall elections in Wisconsin:

I've got an advance look at some new polling by Survey USA that finds solid majorities in two GOP senate districts support the recall of their senators. The poll was paid for by MoveOn, which obviously has an ax to grind in this fight, but Survey USA is a respected non-partisan pollster that's routinely cited by major news organizations.
Here are the numbers, sent over by a MoveOn official, in the districts of GOP senators Dan Kapanke and Randy Hopper.
When asked if they would vote for Hopper or someone else if a recall election were held right now, 54 percent said they'd vote for someone else, versus only 43 percent they'd vote for Hopper.
In Kapanke's district, the numbers were even worse: 57 percent said they'd vote for someone else, versus only 41 percent who said they'd vote for Kapanke. 

I don't doubt the Democrats could win a recall election in at least a couple districts. Both public opinion in the aggregate, and the energy of activists, is on their side. Getting the elections is the hurdle. But if they get the recall election, they can win.

Of course, Scott walker's anti-union bill will already be law by that point. So the real issue will be if Democrats can recall Walker and retake control of the state House in 2012.

Source URL: http://www.newrepublic.com//blog/jonathan-chait/85067/polling-the-wisconsin-recall