ABC News/ Washington Post

Romney’s Favorables Improve, Even Without Bounce
September 05, 2012

Romney didn't get a bounce at the RNC, but he might have laid the groundwork for future gains.

The Perils of the Polling Average: How A Basic Election Prediction Tool Is Favoring Romney
July 31, 2012

The polling average is the essential tool for gauging the state of the race. It's remarkably simple and has an excellent record of performing in crunch time. But while the polling averages are likely to nail the final results yet again, there's an important disclaimer: Two of the most frequent polls, Rasmussen and Gallup, will tend to drag the national polling averages in Romney's direction.  Take the RCP average, which only considers the last two or three weeks of polling. As a result, only a handful of polls are usually represented.

At Home Abroad
February 02, 2004

This was supposed to be the "domestic issues" State of the Union address. In his January 2002 speech, President Bush dwelled on the war in Afghanistan. Last January, he dwelled on the war in Iraq. This year, his aides told reporters, he would turn to the home front, beginning the speech with national security and building to a domestic policy crescendo. It's not hard to understand why. Since he took office, President Bush's popularity has swung largely along a single axis: When national security predominates, it goes up; when domestic policy predominates, it goes down. On September 9, 2001, Bu