The New Republic

The working assumption of many political commentators in Washington is that politics is more polarized than it has been in decades and that it’s the Republican Party’s rightward drift that’s to blame. The evidence bears this out—in part. But it also suggests a more complex story. READ MORE >>

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What are the odds that President Obama wins reelection? Generally incumbents running for their party's second presidential term fare pretty well, as Alan Abramowitz notes. If the economy continues to recover, Obama would be a prohibitive favorite. READ MORE >>

(Join John B. Judis and Richard Just at 1 p.m. on January 20 for a livestream discussion about the Republicans' return.) READ MORE >>

Earth to House Democrats: It’s time to push the panic button. But don’t take my word for it; consider the evidence. READ MORE >>

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz compares 2010 to 1994 by the number of incumbent vs. open seats and controlling for the partisan tendencies of the districts, and finds that the battle for control of the House could be razor-thin: READ MORE >>

Political scientist Alan Abramowitz has done a fascinating pair of studies of candidate ideology and Senate races. The first produces a somewhat intuitive finding: all things being equal, a more conservative Republican, based on voting record, is more likely to lose a Senate race than a more moderate win. In other words, moving further away from the center carries a political cost. READ MORE >>

The daily commentary about the Obama era has largely overlooked a trend that is now unmistakable—namely, the growing conservative sentiment in this country that goes well beyond the tea-party rallies and Glenn Beck’s rants. READ MORE >>

In political circles, Republicans and Democrats alike have begun comparing the 2010 election with the "revolution" that handed both the House and the Senate to the GOP in 1994. But how applicable is that analogy, really? READ MORE >>