Bush

Seven Underrated Counties
November 06, 2012

 Throughout the Bush years, Orange County, FL, Franklin County, OH, and Bucks County, PA ascended to national preeminence as the closest counties in the closest states in the 2000 election. In 2008, the diverse and well-educated new coalition counties, like Arapahoe, CO, Fairfax, VA, Wake, NC stole the show. In 2012, Obama could easily win every county listed above and lose the election. As the suburbs diversify and Republicans compensate with additional inroads into the countryside, the old swing counties of the Bush years have largely moved into the Democratic column.

A Three-Piece Turnout Battle In Virginia
November 05, 2012

Virginia will come down to turnout, not persuasion.

The Final Stretch: Monday's Stops
November 05, 2012

Obama and Romney each hit the states on their path of least resistance to 270.

Obama Leads Final Pew Research Survey By 3
November 04, 2012

An increasingly diverse electorate allows Obama to overcome declining turnout.

Reframing Turnout: Why 2008 Wasn't As Unique As Many Imagine
November 04, 2012

Turnout in 2008 was high, but it wasn't as unusual as many imagine.

The Final Stretch: Sunday's Campaign Stops
November 04, 2012

Obama's Stops Concord, Merrimack County, New Hampshire Obama begins the day in Concord, New Hampshire, a modest population center in the south-central part of the state. Concord and Merrimack County straddle the boundary between New Hampshire’s Democratic-friendly western countryside and the Republican-leaning southeastern and more populous southeastern quadrant. To carry New Hampshire, Obama will need to carry Merrimack County by a modest margin—it was the largest New Hampshire county that voted for Kerry eight years ago. Ft.

The Final Stretch: Saturday's Campaign Stops
November 03, 2012

For each of the last three days of the campaign, we’ll quickly note where Obama and Romney are heading, and why:. Obama Mentor, Lake County, Ohio. Lake County is a white, middle class county including the eastern suburbs and exurbs of Cleveland. Four years ago, Obama won it by just one percentage point, a four point improvement over Bush's four point win. If Romney wins, Lake County will certainly flip and Obama is fighting to prevent such an outcome.

The Coming Popular Vote Nightmare
November 02, 2012

If Obama squeaks out a national popular vote victory, it could be days or weeks until he takes the lead.

Sandy’s Lesson for the Voters: Government Matters
October 30, 2012

Sandy should remind us why we need a big, strong federal government

Romney Has a Problem In Pennsylvania: Math
October 30, 2012

Obama's strength in southeastern Pennsylvania is just a little too much for Republicans to overcome.

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