Bush
Romney on Taxes: Deny, Distract, Dissemble
Twenty-four hours later, the conservative reaction to a devastating report about Mitt Romney’s tax plan is proving almost as interesting as the report itself. READ MORE >>
Everyone pays attention to who's winning, but not all leads are created equal: a candidate's standing matters too. If it’s July in a presidential election year, there’s a big difference between leading 46-40 and 50-44. The former could be a toss-up, the latter is probably not. Why? In recent elections, it is unusual for presidential candidates to finish beneath their share of the vote in summer polling. READ MORE >>
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What the Latest Obama-Favoring Quinnipiac Polls Mean
It’s been a pretty rough week of polling for Mitt Romney. Last week, NBC/WSJ showed Obama opening up a 6 point lead nationally, and Democracy Corps showed Obama at 50 percent among likely voters with a 4 point advantage. This morning’s trifecta of swing state surveys conducted by the venerable pollsters at Quinnipiac added to the fire, showing Obama leading by a substantial margin in the three largest battleground states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. READ MORE >>
If you take a quick look at the electoral map, Ohio really stands out. Here’s a white working class state that Bush carried twice but where Obama still seems to be doing quite well. Not only is Obama competitive, he leads in every poll conducted over the last two months—occasionally by a substantial margin. On balance, Obama’s up by 5 points in the RealClearPolitics average, despite a slimmer national lead and Ohio’s Republican-lean. READ MORE >>
Will Voter ID Laws Cost Obama Reelection?
The possibility that new voter-ID laws could disenfranchise thousands of Democratic- voters in pivotal swing states has received considerable attention recently. After all, 9.2 percent of registered voters in Pennsylvania lack photo identification, including 18 percent of registered voters in heavily Democratic Philadelphia. But these flashy numbers might be misleading. If voter-ID laws have consequences for voter turnout, they’re difficult to detect. READ MORE >>
