CNN
Romney Leads Nationally—Just Not in Battleground States
Debates don't tend to fundamentally reshape presidential elections, but there's a chance that Romney’s historic performance might prove to be an exception. While it’s still early to judge the exact size and duration of Romney’s bounce, it has already given him his first lead in the national polls. As of last night, every post-debate national poll either shows a tied race or a slight Romney advantage, with Romney averaging a 1.4-point lead among likely voters. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Hints Of Tightening, But Not A Fundamental Shift
After a wave of national polls showed a 2-to-4 point lead for the president, the Romney comeback narrative is already building. But is it too soon? Well, that doesn't scream tightening to me. The CNN poll could be a sign of tightening, but it's also the only poll shifted that clearly in Romney’s direction. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Is Obama Struggling in Nevada?
Without CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac, today was all but assured to be a better polling day for Romney. That said, the polls still suggest that Obama leads nationally, as well as in states worth 348 electoral votes. READ MORE >>
The Aimless Career of James Carter IV
Has Obama Fixed His Likely Voter Problem?
Despite the enthusiasm generated by the Democratic National Convention, there remains evidence that a slightly large gap between registered and likely voters continues to persist. On average, likely voters surveys conducted since the conclusion of the DNC show Obama leading by 3.3 points compared to registered voter surveys showing Obama ahead by 6.3 points. Similarly, polls detailing results for both registered and likely voters show Obama outperforming among likely voters by 3.2 points. READ MORE >>
Nobody Likes Mitt
Daily Breakdown: Fox News Poll Undermines Romney's Theory Of The Race
Today's Fox News poll shows Obama leading 48-43 lead over Mitt Romney, a net-six point improvement since their prior survey. Obama’s approval rating also reached 50% among likely voters, joining Rasmussen, Gallup, and CNN in showing a post-convention approval bounce for the president, much like George W. Bush experienced four years ago. READ MORE >>
The tracking polls showed Obama remaining at elevated levels, but the Washington Post threw a wrench into a clear assessment of the race: READ MORE >>
Romney’s Favorables Improve, Even Without Bounce
While Romney didn’t necessarily persuade any voters to join his cause during the Republican National Convention, there is some evidence that the RNC might have helped Romney improve his weak favorability ratings—one of the central problems that hampers his candidacy. READ MORE >>
