Economy

Am I Too Hard on Hedge Funds?
August 23, 2010

[Guest post by Noam Scheiber:]  Felix Salmon is chiding me for an "unconvincing" critique of Sebastian Mallaby's recent book on hedge funds, More Money Than God. He says shifting risk from banks to hedge funds would in fact make the system safe for failure:  Scheiber is worried that people like Morgan Stanley’s Howie Hubler — who lost $9 billion at what was essentially an in-house hedge fund — will simply now repeat their failures at standalone funds, if banks are barred from taking those kind of bets. But that misses the point.

A Political Upside for Obama on the Islamic Center?
August 19, 2010

[Guest post by Noam Scheiber:] I largely agree with Chait's take on the Park51 controversy--in speaking out for the right to build the mosque, I think Obama was being presidential in the best sense of the word. Which is to say, taking a principled position despite the political fallout or any parochial concerns. But I think Chait may have been too pessimistic about the short-term political consequences. That's not just because, as Nate Silver has pointed out, public opinion actually backs the right to build the mosque/Islamic center near Ground Zero.

Does Benefiting from Government Make You Hate It?
August 19, 2010

[Guest post by Noam Scheiber:] Michael Powell has an interesting piece in today's New York Times probing Alaskans' paradoxical contempt for government spending--paradoxical because they benefit from it more than citizens of any other state. (Our own Frank Foer also wrote a great piece along these lines several years ago.) Reading Powell's piece gives you insight not just into the incoherence of the average Alaskan, but some insight into why the stimulus may be so unpopular, even if, as many economists believe, it's worked pretty well.

Are the Big Banks Surrendering on Elizabeth Warren?
August 18, 2010

[Guest post by Noam Scheiber:] That's been my expectation all along--for the simple reason that Wall Street opposition to Warren as head of the consumer financial protection agency would only make it politically more attractive (or at least politically necessary) for the White House to nominate her and Senate Democrats (even some Republicans) to support her.

More on Why Elizabeth Warren Would Be Confirmed
August 17, 2010

[Guest post by Noam Scheiber:] There's an interesting new development on the Elizabeth Warren front today. But, before I get to that, some backstory. I've written before about why Warren is likely to be confirmed as head of the Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection if the president nominates her. Basically, some key Republicans, like Chuck Grassley and Olympia Snowe (and even Jim Bunning), seem to like her.

The Roadmap to a High-Speed Recovery
August 12, 2010

Speaking at a health care reform rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, in July 2009, President Obama declared that the worst of the recession was over. “We have stopped the free-fall. The market is up and the financial system is no longer on the verge of collapse,” he said proudly. A year or so later, with midterm elections looming and an electorate that is as fearful and angry as any in memory, the stock market has risen, but even a breath of bad news can send it tumbling. As dismal as housing prices continue to be, they have yet to hit bottom in some places.

What Christy Romer Means for Elizabeth Warren...
August 06, 2010

[Guest post by Noam Scheiber:] From the department of totally irresponsible speculation: If Austan Goolsbee is in fact the frontrunner to replace Christy Romer as head of the Council of Economic Advisers, wouldn't that mean the White House is now far more likely to nominate Elizabeth Warren to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau?  This is based on nothing I've heard from any administration official, other than that I know they've been thinking about the gender breakdown on the economic team for some time now.

Tremble, Banks, Tremble
July 09, 2010

The financial crisis in America isn't over. It's ongoing, it remains unresolved, and it stands in the way of full economic recovery. The cause, at the deepest level, was a breakdown in the rule of law. And it follows that the first step toward prosperity is to restore the rule of law in the financial sector. First, there was a stand-down of the financial police. The legal framework for this was laid with the repeal of Glass-Steagall in 1999 and the Commodities Futures Modernization Act of 2000.

Morning Is Coming
July 01, 2010

Do a thought experiment: Think back a year ago to what most analysts were predicting for the financial sector and for the state of the economy. In his newspaper column, Paul Krugman repeatedly warned that the policies adopted by the Bush and Obama administrations would have dire consequences. There was talk in other corners about no new business lending, slumping retail sales, and rising unemployment with no end in sight. But here we are—in the midst of a rebound. Each week over the last year, a number of positive and negative economic indicators were announced.

A Pretty Good Deal on Financial Reform
June 25, 2010

Parsing the final compromise.

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