The New Republic

While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallup’s tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallup’s most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the president’s direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels. READ MORE >>

This afternoon, Gallup applied its likely voter model for the first time and found Romney gaining 5 points compared to registered voters. But while a persistent likely-registered voter gap isn't good for the president's chances, it's worth remembering that this is about the same difference that Gallup found at this point four years ago. As you can see, Gallup initially showed a 6 point gap between likely and registered voters, which shrunk to just a couple of points by Election Day.  The y-axis is the gap between likely and registered voters. READ MORE >>

If you missed yesterday’s polls, check out this recap. Long story short: the tracking polls initially suggested that Romney’s bounce began to recede, then Pew Research pointed toward an extremely large bounce for Romney.   READ MORE >>

Right when it looked like there was a moment of clarity, Pew comes out with a new poll showing Romney ahead by 4 points among likely voters. The new data has conservatives celebrating and liberals in a panic, but here are three important pieces of context: READ MORE >>

After Romney gained about 3 points over the weekend, Obama made gains in today’s Rasmussen and Gallup approval tracking polls, suggesting that Romney’s bounce had peaked and was beginning to fade. At least until Pew interrupted. READ MORE >>

While it’s still too early to judge the size of Romney’s post-debate bounce, some of the worst news for Mitt is coming from an unlikely source: the traditionally-GOP leaning Rasmussen Reports. READ MORE >>

After lurching in Romney’s direction on Saturday, Gallup, Reuters/Ipsos, and Rasmussen all held steady, perhaps indicating that Romney’s bounce was leveling off.  Two big questions: READ MORE >>

With Obama holding a narrow lead over the summer, one of the more potent arguments for a Romney comeback was the fundraising prowess of his campaign and their PAC allies. Romney outraised Obama for four consecutive months after he secured the Republican nomination and GOP-aligned Super PACs outraised their Democratic counterparts by even larger margins. READ MORE >>

With post-debate polls showing Romney making gains nationally, the race appears tight enough to again merit consideration of the Electoral College. So what states are most important to watch after the debates? While Florida, Virginia, and Colorado could all prove decisive, the pre-debate polls suggested that Romney's biggest problems were Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio. Consider an average of post-DNC polls in the battleground states: READ MORE >>

After hesitating yesterday, the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers both lurched in Romney’s direction, with Romney taking a 2 point lead in Rasmussen and closing to within 3 points in Gallup. The movement in Gallup, Rasmussen, the We Ask America polls, and Reuters/Ipsos are all consistent with a four-point movement in Romney’s direction. If confirmed, the race could be a dead heat. Additionally, a Clarus Research Group survey showed Obama leading by 4 in a one-day sample prior to the DNC but found Romney leading by 1 on Thursday. READ MORE >>