Electionate
It's time to wait for more data.
October 08, 2012
Is Romney’s Bounce Receding Or Growing?
Today's polls hinted at a return to post-debate norms.
October 08, 2012
Rasmussen Throws Cold Water on Romney’s Post-Debate Bounce
Who would have thought that Rasmussen would stand alone in pointing toward limited or no evidence of a Romney bounce?
October 08, 2012
Daily Breakdown: Romney's Bounce Levels Off, But Will It Last?
The evolution of the tracking polls hinted that Romney's bounce might be short lived.
October 08, 2012
How Obama Neutralized Romney's Expected Financial Advantage
An army of small donors was able to neutralize the unlimited donations feared after Citizens United.
October 08, 2012
To See Whether Romney's Bounce Counts, Follow Ohio, Iowa, and Nevada
Romney's four point bounce won't give him the lead without outsized gains in key swing states.
October 06, 2012
Trackers Lurch Toward Romney
There are signs of movement in Romney's direction, but the size of any shift remains unclear.
October 05, 2012
Size of Romney Bounce Remains Unclear
The first day of post-debate polls showed signs of movement in Romney's direction, but the polls disagreed about just how much.
October 05, 2012
How Romney Is Coping With Obama’s Newfound Ad Spending Advantage
Romney is dealing with getting outspent by taking risks in New Hampshire and Iowa.
October 05, 2012
Daily Breakdown: Baseline And Tea Leaves
The first wave of post-debate polls are still in the field, so we're still waiting to determine whether Romney received a sizable bounce. But a baseline is necessary to judge the size of Romney’s bounce, so let's take the polling doldrums as an opportunity to consider the state of the race heading into the debates. Why an average of post-DNC polls? First, the pre-debate polls were consistent with the post-DNC average. If the race tightened over the last few days, it only tightened from Obama's post-"47 percent" peak to something more typical of the rest of September.
