Electionate
The Bounce Has Arrived
Will the Conventions Move Florida or North Carolina?
Romney's Electoral Map Is Tough Without Wisconsin
Why is the Obama campaign so confident when the national polls seem so close? Perhaps their polls show Obama with a larger lead? Maybe they’re convinced that the likely voter models are too tight, or otherwise under-represent non-white and young voters (cell phones?). But the Obama campaign’s persistent advantage in the state-level polling—and therefore the Electoral College—is another possibility, especially since the campaigns invest far more in state than national polls. READ MORE >>
Will Obama Have a Big Bounce? Depends on Why Romney’s Was Small.
Why Clinton is the Perfect Surrogate For Obama
Romney’s Favorables Improve, Even Without Bounce
While Romney didn’t necessarily persuade any voters to join his cause during the Republican National Convention, there is some evidence that the RNC might have helped Romney improve his weak favorability ratings—one of the central problems that hampers his candidacy. READ MORE >>
Why Did the DNC Move Obama’s Speech Inside: Weather or Low Turnout?
Four years after accepting the Democratic nomination in front of 85,000 spectators in Denver, the 2012 DNC has elected to move Obama’s acceptance speech from Bank of America Stadium to the far smaller Time Warner Cable Arena. According to Obama campaign officials, weather prompted the move—making this the second straight convention forced to reschedule on account of mother nature. READ MORE >>
Not Much Evidence That Romney Got a Post-Convention Bounce—and That Should Worry Him
Would Romney get a 3-point bounce or a 5-point bounce? That was the question heading into Romney’s acceptance speech last Thursday. While sparse polling over Labor Day added to the uncertainty, the question today has changed. Did Romney even get a bounce at all? READ MORE >>
When Mitt Romney accepted the GOP nomination for president on Thursday night, Republicans greeted him with a standing ovation. But it's safe to say that there were dozens of politicians in the convention hall who were thinking: That could be me—in four years. READ MORE >>
