Electionate
Watch Five Hidden Post-Convention Bounces
While everyone judges whether Romney gets a 2 or a 6 point bounce, don’t forget that there is only a weak relationship between a candidate’s vertical leap and their performance in November. Instead, remember to follow a few potential beneath-the-hood bounces that might wind up mattering more in November. READ MORE >>
Today Is The Most Important Day of The Campaign
Nothing has characterized the first phase of the general election more than stability. Despite an array of supposed game-changers, the president’s approval rating remains mired beneath 50 percent, two candidates remain locked in a close race, and Obama consistently holds a narrow lead. In part, Obama’s advantage is attributable to one of the other defining features of the summer: Romney’s weakness. Tonight is Romney's chance to fix it. READ MORE >>
Post-Convention Bounces: A Taxonomical Guide
The post-convention polls are just a few days away and reporters are gearing up to see whether Obama or Romney will earn the biggest bounce. But while most will judge the bounces relative to historic expectations, there’s another metric to pay attention to: the share of the popular vote that each candidate attains at the peak of his post-convention heights. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Close Race Heading Into Day 2
Polls continue to show a tight race among likely voters heading into the convention: READ MORE >>
State of the Race: Obama Has a Narrow But Clear Lead
As Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan prepare for their national debut, polls show Obama maintaining a slight but clear lead in national and state polls. Although Obama’s advantage is often narrow, it is durable and consistent—enough to make him the favorite. But fortunately for Romney, the conventions are a real opportunity to undo damage done by months of attacks and capitalize on disappointment with Obama's performance. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: State Polls and Isaac
Not an incredibly interesting polling day heading into the conventions. READ MORE >>
Tampa May Have Hurricanes, But It Also Has Swing Voters
A convention in Florida during the heart of Hurricane season?! What was the RNC thinking? They were probably more focused on demographics and voting trends than winds patterns, and politically speaking, it’s actually not hard to see why holding a convention in Tampa was appealing enough to offset the risks. The Tampa-St. Petersburg metropolitan area has ascended to preeminence in Florida’s presidential politics: It’s now the swing state’s last real swing region. READ MORE >>
