Electionate
New Prediction Model Doesn’t Prove Romney Will Win
A widely publicized political science forecasting model by Ken Berry and Michael Bickers in Colorado projects that Romney should win big. My take? Add it to the pile. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Obama Ahead In Ohio
Was this a good day for Obama? Depends on your perspective. The polls don’t point toward much of a shift in his direction, so in that sense, it’s a relatively neutral day. But since “neutral” is equivalent to “Obama is leading” in the current environment, perhaps it’s a good day for Obama. READ MORE >>
Romney’s Lost August
Daily Breakdown: Romney Gains?
Before looking at the details, take in the big picture. Out of nine possible surveys, six of the polls showed Romney improving over the prior result compared to one for Obama. Not every day has been this decisive in Romney’s favor, but the balance of polls over the last week have pointed toward marginal movement in his favor—perhaps by a point or two. One or two points aren’t much, but that’s as much movement as we get in this race and it's a pretty close one, so it’s worth noting. READ MORE >>
Weatherblogging: Tropical Storm Isaac Threatens To Disrupt RNC
Four years ago, Hurricane Gustav’s landfall along the Louisiana coast delayed the start of the Republican National Convention in Minneapolis. Four years later, Republicans decided to convene the RNC in Florida during the heart of hurricane season. So naturally, there's a tropical cyclone heading in the general direction of the RNC. READ MORE >>
The Real Strategy Behind Romney’s (Lying) Welfare Ads
Clearly, the Romney campaign's anti-Obama welfare ads have come at a cost. Given the way they have been condemned as false by even mainstream media sources—as Alec MacGillis pointed out yesterday, Joe Scarborough has explained that he was “stunned” by the ads' demonstrable falseness—the Romney camp has forfeited any hope of pivoting to the “high road” in response to future Obama attacks. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Obama Leads In NBC/WSJ Poll
Akin Gives Democrats an Edge In the Fight For Control of Senate
Last night, PPP released a survey showing Akin leading McCaskill by one point in Missouri. Even if that was true yesterday, I doubt it will be true next week. And that probably makes Democrats favored to maintain control of the Senate. READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Bad Polls and Romney's Cash
How Todd Akin is Hurting Rommey’s Electoral Chances
It’s hard to say how many news cycles will involve the jaw-dropping statement by Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin that women’s bodies can block pregnancy in instances of “legitimate” rape. If my twitter feed is an indicator, it might be more than one. What can be said with certainty, though, is that every day spent on this issue is a very bad one for Romney. READ MORE >>
