Electionate
Bad political analysts received a gift today: a new tool to reinforce their worst instincts. Twitter has launched the “Twitter Political Index,” which will apparently provide a daily assessment of political sentiment on twitter. READ MORE >>
What the Latest Obama-Favoring Quinnipiac Polls Mean
It’s been a pretty rough week of polling for Mitt Romney. Last week, NBC/WSJ showed Obama opening up a 6 point lead nationally, and Democracy Corps showed Obama at 50 percent among likely voters with a 4 point advantage. This morning’s trifecta of swing state surveys conducted by the venerable pollsters at Quinnipiac added to the fire, showing Obama leading by a substantial margin in the three largest battleground states: Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida. READ MORE >>
The Perils of the Polling Average: How A Basic Election Prediction Tool Is Favoring Romney
The polling average is the essential tool for gauging the state of the race. It's remarkably simple and has an excellent record of performing in crunch time. But while the polling averages are likely to nail the final results yet again, there's an important disclaimer: Two of the most frequent polls, Rasmussen and Gallup, will tend to drag the national polling averages in Romney's direction. READ MORE >>
If you take a quick look at the electoral map, Ohio really stands out. Here’s a white working class state that Bush carried twice but where Obama still seems to be doing quite well. Not only is Obama competitive, he leads in every poll conducted over the last two months—occasionally by a substantial margin. On balance, Obama’s up by 5 points in the RealClearPolitics average, despite a slimmer national lead and Ohio’s Republican-lean. READ MORE >>
So Goes Poland, So Goes America
After months defending traditionally red states like North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio, Romney has finally decided to launch an offensive. Where? Poland: The predictably undefended flank of Obama’s route to 270 electoral votes. READ MORE >>
Why Romney's Numbers Aren't Dropping
The Case of Pennsylvania's Missing Ads
The Siege of Washington Begins
If, like me, you live in the D.C. area and your housemate has been watching “Jeopardy” over the last few weeks, you’ve probably gotten to hear Romney singing “America the Beautiful” pretty regularly and you may be wondering if the sheer number of political ads have sky-rocketed. If you've noticed that too, you’re not delusional: Washington has started to get the full treatment from both campaigns, and that’s probably going to last until November. READ MORE >>
