The New Republic

With Obama holding a narrow but consistent lead in polls of registered voters, some have begun to speculate about whether Romney would seize the advantage once polls begin to apply likely voter models. While it's possible, recent polls suggest that Obama would maintain a slight advantage. READ MORE >>

Why isn’t Minnesota a swing state? The state voted for Obama by just 10 percent in 2010 Normal 0 false false false MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 READ MORE >>

Yesterday, the White House made it clear that they did not intend to pursue additional gun control measures in the aftermath of the horrific shootings in Aurora, Colorado. Although this insulates the president from accusations of politicizing a national tragedy, the decision was probably motivated by political considerations. READ MORE >>

The horrific and deadly rampage in Colorado has renewed public interest in the merits of gun control, though neither presidential campaign has thus far made an issue of it. Part of the reason is that they don't want to be perceived as politicizing a true tragedy. But it's also undeniable that gun control is an especially risky issue. There is, however, an opportunity for Obama to frame the issue in a manner that reduces the risk of alienating conservatives by focusing on assault weapons. READ MORE >>

State economies get a lot of media attention. In Nevada, the state’s sky-high unemployment rate is a must-mention for political analysts, while every article about Virginia or Iowa notes the unusually low unemployment rate. Although political reporters insist on stressing state economic performance, studies have found that state-level unemployment has no relationship to state presidential outcomes. Will history repeat itself? READ MORE >>

If there is any state where attacks on Romney would be expected to make a difference, it would be Ohio—a state full of white working class swing voters who treat outsourcing and closed manufacturing plants seriously. READ MORE >>

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Yesterday, Latino Decisions released a new poll showing Obama leading among Latino voters by a staggering 70 to 22 percent margin. While that appears to show Obama poised to exceed his big 67-31 percent victory from 2008, a closer look reveals that Obama’s advantage isn’t quite as enormous as these flashy numbers suggest. READ MORE >>

This afternoon, PPP released a New Mexico survey with surprising results, showing Obama’s lead in the state collapsing,  as the president fell from a 14 point advantage to just a 5 point edge. So is this a sign that New Mexico is returning to its competitive roots? If I were Romney, I wouldn't get too excited yet. A closer look at the numbers reveals that Obama is probably still holding up well in the Land of Enchantment. READ MORE >>