Electionate
State Unemployment Rates Aren't Moving The Polls
State economies get a lot of media attention. In Nevada, the state’s sky-high unemployment rate is a must-mention for political analysts, while every article about Virginia or Iowa notes the unusually low unemployment rate. Although political reporters insist on stressing state economic performance, studies have found that state-level unemployment has no relationship to state presidential outcomes. Will history repeat itself?
Ohio: The Place Where the Bain Attacks Are Working
If there is any state where attacks on Romney would be expected to make a difference, it would be Ohio—a state full of white working class swing voters who treat outsourcing and closed manufacturing plants seriously. For that reason, Priorities USA—the Obama-aligned Super PAC dedicated to attacking Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital—allocated considerable resources to the Buckeye State, airing advertisements in both the Cleveland and Columbus media markets.
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Table Normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin-top:0in; mso-para-margin-right:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:10.0pt; mso-para-margin-left:0in; line-height:115%; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-th
Is Obama Alienating Rich Voters?
Affluent voters were an important element of Obama’s coalition in 2008. Will that change this year? Some observers believe that Obama might alienate former supporters with attacks on Bain Capital and renewed calls to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.
Is Obama Up 48 Points With Latino Voters?
Yesterday, Latino Decisions released a new poll showing Obama leading among Latino voters by a staggering 70 to 22 percent margin. While that appears to show Obama poised to exceed his big 67-31 percent victory from 2008, a closer look reveals that Obama’s advantage isn’t quite as enormous as these flashy numbers suggest. Latino Decisions is an excellent firm, but it’s important to place their numbers in the context of the methodological peculiarities that distinguish them from other pollsters.
Don’t Trust That Poll! Obama is Doing Fine in New Mexico
This afternoon, PPP released a New Mexico survey with surprising results, showing Obama’s lead in the state collapsing, as the president fell from a 14 point advantage to just a 5 point edge. So is this a sign that New Mexico is returning to its competitive roots? If I were Romney, I wouldn't get too excited yet. A closer look at the numbers reveals that Obama is probably still holding up well in the Land of Enchantment. There's a reason that New Mexico is a blue state.
Every four years, political reporters flood western Pennsylvania searching for the latest clue to decipher the shifting allegiances of coveted “Reagan Democrats,” the socially conservative voters who abandoned the New Deal coalition over cultural issues in the '70's and '80's. When a candidate visits Pennsylvania, the accompanying news reports remind us that “Reagan Democrats” are the consummate swing voters who maintain a stranglehold over the outcome of critical races in large industrial Midwestern states like Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
With Obama struggling among independent voters and Democrats likely to constitute a slightly larger share of the electorate than Republicans, Romney will probably carry independents in a close national election.
In the wake of last week’s ABC News/Washington Post poll, ABC News reported that Obama has a problem with independent voters. On the one hand, this isn’t surprising. Obama has consolidated the Democratic vote, and yet he remains beneath 50 percent among registered voters; obviously independents aren’t swooning to support the President’s reelection. But does that mean Obama has a problem among independents?
Obama Is Well Positioned In Virginia
As I explained in this week's issue of the print magazine, the resilience of Obama's "new coalition" of upscale whites and minorities has allowed Obama to remain competitive in North Carolina, a state that voted for him by just 14,000 votes in 2008. It also augurs poorly for Romney in Virginia, an extremely similar state where the same forces keeping North Carolina close might just keep Virginia in the Democratic column. Obama’s Virginia coalition might be the most resilient of any battleground state.
