Electionate
So, you think Obama leads by 8 percentage points in the swing states, as suggested by last night’s NBC/WSJ survey? Before you jump on the bandwagon, understand what that entails: a blowout. In 2008, Obama carried NBC/WSJ’s twelve swing states by 7.7 percentage points. A result like last night’s poll would require a repeat performance, even as most polls show Obama’s standing substantially worse than four years ago. READ MORE >>
Death of a Swing Region: Orlando
Orlando was once heralded as the key swing city in the key swing state, nestled at the center of the country’s key swing region, the I-4 corridor, where many believed the presidency would be decided. In 2000 and 2004, the sentiment was understandable. No populous Florida County was closer to the state average than Orlando’s Orange County in 2000, and Kerry won Orange County by just 815 votes out of nearly 400,000 in 2004. READ MORE >>
Revisiting Arizona
Today’s Immigration Ruling Adds To Romney’s Latino Woes
The long-awaited health care ruling didn't arrive this morning, but there was another significant announcement: The Supreme Court ruled 5-3 against three components of the controversial Arizona immigration law, while upholding the provision requiring police to check the immigration status of individuals suspected to be in the United States illegally. READ MORE >>
The Obama Campaign’s Two-Fold Strategy
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How Much Can Mormons Help Romney?
In 2008, Obama’s candidacy drove historic black turnout and support for Democrats, contributing nearly half of Obama’s margin of victory. Four years later, the GOP has nominated the first Mormon nominee for the Presidency, and some argue that Mitt Romney’s background might help his chances. While the effect of prejudice is difficult to judge, it is possible to gauge potential gains. And unfortunately for the Romney campaign, increases in Mormon turnout and support for Romney are only likely to help at the margins in a limited number of swing states. READ MORE >>
Who's Keeping the Race Close? Obama or Romney?
After a supposedly disastrous month of anemic jobs growth and unforced errors, Obama appears to maintain his slight advantage over Romney in national polls. The stability of the race has surprised many, particularly those invested in the daily beat of the news cycle. TNR’s own Alec MacGillis thinks that “a huge part of it must have to do with [Obama’s] lackluster opposition.” I'm not sure the numbers bear that out. READ MORE >>
Can North Carolina Be a Tipping Point State?
Is Obama Really Up By 13 Percent?
This morning, Bloomberg News released a poll that sent Twitter into a frenzy, showing Obama up by 13 percentage points, 53-40. READ MORE >>
