Electionate
Will Obama’s New Immigration Policy Help in November?
This morning, the Obama administration announced its intention to halt deportation and allow work authorization for nearly one million undocumented immigrants: those who arrived in the U.S. before the age of 16, are younger than 30 years old, and have graduated from high school or have military service.
Death of a Swing Region: Northern Virginia
The affluent and diverse suburbs of northern Virginia swung decisively toward Obama in 2008, providing most of his margin of victory in a state that hadn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Although Obama is not assured of another victory in the Commonwealth, Romney probably won’t win by rolling back Obama’s gains in the D.C. suburbs.
With the financial balance of power shifting toward the Republicans, Democrats are understandably alarmed that a deluge of cash from outside groups and Wall Street could swamp Obama’s reelection efforts. As an initial step, the Obama campaign has concentrated their expenditures on a smaller number of swing states, ensuring that they at least remain competitive in the markets they consider most important. But when you concentrate resources, some areas end up short-changed, and the decision to narrow the playing field has left Obama without substantial purchases in several media markets.
Yesterday, my inbox blazed with the news that Obama's standing among African Americans is plummeting in North Carolina.
Will Obama Have a Turnout Problem?
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Since Romney secured the nomination in mid-April, the horse race has been rattled by supposed game-changers, ranging from Obama’s decision to endorse gay marriage to terrible new jobs numbers. Political pundits engrossed in the twists and turns of the campaign agree that events and poor messaging have conspired to reduce Obama’s chances.
Romney's Virginia Problem
As I explained yesterday, Obama’s losses among less educated white voters are serious. But remember: those losses are likely to vary state by state. White voters without a college degree in Portland shouldn’t be counted on to swing like those in Pensacola.
One demographic has plagued Obama since his primary duel with Hillary Clinton: white voters without a college degree. Although Obama ultimately won enough white non-college voters to win the presidency in 2008, his performance was underwhelming by historic standards. And over the last four years, Obama’s already tepid support among white voters without a college degree has collapsed. At the same time, the “newer” elements of the Democratic coalition—college educated and non-white voters—have continued to offer elevated levels of support to the president.
Electionate Live-Blogs the Wisconsin Recall
Wisconsin by the Numbers Scott Walker cruised to a 53-46 win in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Recall, stunning Democrats expecting a tight race after early exit polls. Walker's victory was built on a GOP-friendly electorate, even whiter, older, richer, and less Democratic than the 2010 midterms, let alone 2008. Seniors represented 18% of the electorate, up from 16% in 2010 and 14% in 2008. The non-white share of the electorate fell from 11% in 2008 to 10% in 2010, to 9% in 2012. 20% of voters made more than $100,000/year, up from 16% in 2010 and 19% in 2008.
From messaging to ad placement, campaigns make critical decisions based on demographics and geography. Indeed, coverage of campaign decision-making and the ups and downs of the horserace are incomplete without accounting for these variables. That’s why I’ll be following the evolution of the electorate and how it shapes the campaign at TNR. Demographics aren’t quite destiny, but they’ll play an outsized role in the 2012 presidential election. The Obama campaign is counting on repeating an unprecedented performance among non-white voters.
