Electionate
What Black Turnout for Obama in 2012 Means for the GOP in 2016
The GOP Has Problems With White Voters, Too
The Auto Bailout Didn’t Decide Ohio
There Aren't As Many Missing Voters As It Seems
In the aftermath of Obama's election, one emerging theme is the "missing voter." Romney campaign advisors apparently told members of the press that McCain received 2 million fewer votes than they did in 2008. In a column on RealClearPolitics, Sean Trende estimates that white turnout declined by 7 percent from 2008. READ MORE >>
Electionate’s Election Night Live Blog
Over the next few hours, returns from across the country will resolve which of these campaign efforts succeeded and which did not. We'll learn whether the wealthy financiers of Fairfield, CT abandoned the president en masse, or whether a long-promised surge in Latino turnout will propel the president to victory. We’ll learn which voters flipped toward Romney, which voters stayed with Obama, and who will win the critical battleground states on the path to 270 electoral votes. READ MORE >>
Seven Underrated Counties
Throughout the Bush years, Orange County, FL, Franklin County, OH, and Bucks County, PA ascended to national preeminence as the closest counties in the closest states in the 2000 election. In 2008, the diverse and well-educated new coalition counties, like Arapahoe, CO, Fairfax, VA, Wake, NC stole the show. In 2012, Obama could easily win every county listed above and lose the election. READ MORE >>
26 Election Day Predictions
If you were hoping for state by state predictions, tough luck. Since I mainly trust the polls, my "predictions" aren't really mine (they're the polls) and they don't really add much value unless I'm dissenting. And if you’ve been following this blog and the polls, you can probably guess the basic outline of what I think will happen on Tuesday night. So here are 27 random predictions that might be more thought provoking than repeating some variant of the current polls. When it was close or defensible, I tried to go with a somewhat interesting answer... READ MORE >>
Daily Breakdown: Polls Show Obama As A Clear Favorite In A Close Race
The president’s modest lead in the critical battleground states and tenuous advantage in the national polls is small by historic standards, especially for an incumbent president running for reelection. Nonetheless, the president’s lead is clear enough and consistent enough to deem him an obvious favorite heading into Election Night. READ MORE >>
What to Watch for—and Ignore—on Election Day
Romney’s Final Dash Hints At Bleak View Of Race
Over the final days of the campaign, the president's and vice president’s schedule pointed toward a clear strategy: lock down the Midwestern firewall states and take a flier on Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. The Romney campaign's strategy was more interesting. READ MORE >>
